5 ms·

I like your parallel between Microsoft and Google. To me, it also implies Google probably won't ever lose the search crown directly, the same way Microsoft nev

by Ygg2 7y ago

I like your parallel between Microsoft and Google. To me, it also implies Google probably won't ever lose the search crown directly, the same way Microsoft never lost it's OS crown, to Linux or MacOS. However, Windows is dwarfed by the Android install base.

mojuba 7y ago
True but I think the parallel between Google and MS (of the 2000s) is more interesting in terms of the vital signs in their organization rather than on the product level. Because Windows was only improving from release to release, while Search is getting shittier and shittier (sorry, can't find a better word for at least my own frustration with using it today). So Search may in fact die a quick and sudden death at this pace. Theoretically replacing Search can only take one browser update: offer a choice but rearrange the options, for example. However, what Google and pre-Nadella Microsoft share is let's say living in a bubble of a tremendous success of one product that's also the main source of revenue (MS Office, and Google Ads), plus inability to innovate. This is an institutional/organizational symptom more than anything else. Old HN'ers should remember PG's essay[1] so maybe now is the time to reassess Google's place in the world. [1] http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html
- Ygg2 7y ago
  Yeah, I noticed a trend in Google search just sucking (being less relevant) more and more, but tbh same happened to Windows as well. However I do find Google's lack of relevancy way (compared to itself few years ago) more stark.
- riffraff 7y ago
  Isn't Google making more and more money from non-search products? e.g. Google cloud products, YouTube. It seems they are trying to differentiate, see also Google+, stadia etc, just not being very successful.
  - mojuba 7y ago
    Doesn't seem to be the case [1] The article that comments on this chart says other sources (non-ad ones) look promising but it more sounds like a speculation because I don't see real signs of that. [1] https://www.theatlas.com/charts/n8ea9MPE0 https://www.theatlas.com/charts/n8ea9MPE0
    - riffraff 7y ago
      why not? it's about ~9B in 2016, ~11 in 2017, ~19B in 2018 and ~10B in the first six months of 2019, with the last quarter being the largest in the past. Sure, it's less than the ad business but it's doubled in 3 years, surely that's a healthy rate of growth?
      - scarface74 7y ago
        That’s revenue not profit.
irrational 7y ago
How is Windows OS these days? I haven't used it since the early 2000s. I think the last version I used was... XP? Everyone at my work uses a MacBook. Some of my children are in their early 20s now and have never used Windows. It has always been OSX/MacOS, iOS, Ubuntu, Android, or ChromeOS. I don't know if my kids are typical or not but if many of the rising generation don't grow up using Windows, will they want to use it when they are adults? Will Windows hold on to its OS crown?
- Spooky23 7y ago
  If they work in any large company in most industries, then yes, they will use Windows. At scale, Apple is too mercurial to be a sole source supplier. Chrome is interesting, but there isn’t a ton of adoption outside of schools.
  - irrational 7y ago
    I work for a Fortune 150 company with tens of thousands of employees. Every meeting is a sea of MacBooks. I can't remember the last time I saw a Windows machine at work.
- hombre_fatal 7y ago
  Windows still owns gaming which is going to keep it relevant to the youth despite anything it does poorly for some time to come. Just look how many front-page carousel blockbusters on Steam still only support Windows. I game on macOS and things are slowly getting better, but macOS is still mostly relegated to Aspyr ports. I'd be reluctant to claim that Windows is dying to youngsters until the state of gaming radically changes. https://store.steampowered.com/ https://store.steampowered.com/
  - majewsky 7y ago
    Do you have Proton (Valve's supercharged Wine distro) on macOS? Here on Linux, Steam's game coverage has improved significantly because of Proton
  - davidjnelson 7y ago
sukilot 7y ago
The Google is MS meme was old by 2011 https://www.businessinsider.com/steve-jobs-was-right-google-looks-a-lot-like-microsoft-did-2011-11 https://www.businessinsider.com/steve-jobs-was-right-google-...

by Ygg2 7y ago

mojuba 7y ago

True but I think the parallel between Google and MS (of the 2000s) is more interesting in terms of the vital signs in their organization rather than on the product level. Because Windows was only improving from release to release, while Search is getting shittier and shittier (sorry, can't find a better word for at least my own frustration with using it today). So Search may in fact die a quick and sudden death at this pace. Theoretically replacing Search can only take one browser update: offer a choice but rearrange the options, for example. However, what Google and pre-Nadella Microsoft share is let's say living in a bubble of a tremendous success of one product that's also the main source of revenue (MS Office, and Google Ads), plus inability to innovate. This is an institutional/organizational symptom more than anything else. Old HN'ers should remember PG's essay[1] so maybe now is the time to reassess Google's place in the world. [1] http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html

Ygg2 7y ago
Yeah, I noticed a trend in Google search just sucking (being less relevant) more and more, but tbh same happened to Windows as well. However I do find Google's lack of relevancy way (compared to itself few years ago) more stark.
riffraff 7y ago
Isn't Google making more and more money from non-search products? e.g. Google cloud products, YouTube. It seems they are trying to differentiate, see also Google+, stadia etc, just not being very successful.
- mojuba 7y ago
  Doesn't seem to be the case [1] The article that comments on this chart says other sources (non-ad ones) look promising but it more sounds like a speculation because I don't see real signs of that. [1] https://www.theatlas.com/charts/n8ea9MPE0 https://www.theatlas.com/charts/n8ea9MPE0
  - riffraff 7y ago
    why not? it's about ~9B in 2016, ~11 in 2017, ~19B in 2018 and ~10B in the first six months of 2019, with the last quarter being the largest in the past. Sure, it's less than the ad business but it's doubled in 3 years, surely that's a healthy rate of growth?
    - scarface74 7y ago
      That’s revenue not profit.

irrational 7y ago

How is Windows OS these days? I haven't used it since the early 2000s. I think the last version I used was... XP? Everyone at my work uses a MacBook. Some of my children are in their early 20s now and have never used Windows. It has always been OSX/MacOS, iOS, Ubuntu, Android, or ChromeOS. I don't know if my kids are typical or not but if many of the rising generation don't grow up using Windows, will they want to use it when they are adults? Will Windows hold on to its OS crown?

Spooky23 7y ago
If they work in any large company in most industries, then yes, they will use Windows. At scale, Apple is too mercurial to be a sole source supplier. Chrome is interesting, but there isn’t a ton of adoption outside of schools.
- irrational 7y ago
  I work for a Fortune 150 company with tens of thousands of employees. Every meeting is a sea of MacBooks. I can't remember the last time I saw a Windows machine at work.
hombre_fatal 7y ago
Windows still owns gaming which is going to keep it relevant to the youth despite anything it does poorly for some time to come. Just look how many front-page carousel blockbusters on Steam still only support Windows. I game on macOS and things are slowly getting better, but macOS is still mostly relegated to Aspyr ports. I'd be reluctant to claim that Windows is dying to youngsters until the state of gaming radically changes. https://store.steampowered.com/ https://store.steampowered.com/
- majewsky 7y ago
  Do you have Proton (Valve's supercharged Wine distro) on macOS? Here on Linux, Steam's game coverage has improved significantly because of Proton
- davidjnelson 7y ago

sukilot 7y ago

The Google is MS meme was old by 2011 https://www.businessinsider.com/steve-jobs-was-right-google-looks-a-lot-like-microsoft-did-2011-11 https://www.businessinsider.com/steve-jobs-was-right-google-...