I don't think it is as near or going to be as bad as some people think, but with caveats. Listening to the guy who the big short was based on now, my main take

I don't think it is as near or going to be as bad as some people think, but with caveats. Listening to the guy who the big short was based on now, my main takeaway is that the banks deleveraged significantly since 07/08, down to ~11 vs ~30 then. Of course, part of the problem is they were using financial tricks to cover up bad assets... so I think they might be more leveraged than they are letting on. Second, the legislation afterwards only really did one thing: make the "fix", aka fed bailout, automatic. This means there should be less time between drop and recovery. At the same time, it creates incentive for bankers to be more reckless. Politically, midterms are always about the economy at heart. If Trump is serving Wall Street well enough they will try to keep him propped up for 2020, and would probably try to delay the big dip till either right after or till 2023/24. https://econbrowser.com/archives/2019/06/recession-anxieties-june-2019 https://econbrowser.com/archives/2019/06/recession-anxieties... https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/rosenberg-on-lagged-effects-of-fed-tightening-corporate-deleveraging/ https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/rosenberg-on-lagged-effe...