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> If some metric claims that there is a 50% chance of recession in the next 12 months, I'd expect it to be right roughly half the time it makes that confident a
by throwawaymath 7y ago
> If some metric claims that there is a 50% chance of recession in the next 12 months, I'd expect it to be right roughly half the time it makes that confident a claim. Similarly, I'd expect a recession one third of the time that the metric says 33%.
What if the forecast is Bayesian rather than frequentist?
- scyclow 7y agoIt's fine if the underlying model is Bayensian, but if you're going to present a time series graph then those past numbers don't mean a whole lot. Why not adjust the past data to be frequentist at that point?