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There are physics limitations on batteries. I am not sure there will be a breakthrough. Obviously its worth investing in materials research, but for an average

by foxes 7y ago

There are physics limitations on batteries. I am not sure there will be a breakthrough. Obviously its worth investing in materials research, but for an average person commuting within a city, the technology seems there. The breakthrough needs to be the price.

newnewpdro 7y ago
For the average person, the batteries need to be recharged at least at a similar rate and range to filling a gas tank. My understanding is this still requires a battery breakthrough, or at least significant improvement. The average person is a tenant without home charging as an option, they require a gas station substitute or better - ideally an obsoleting solution eliminating this waste of time altogether. Imagine if a battery breakthrough enabled 2000 mile ranges with a 5 minute recharge, and effectively unlimited charge cycles so the battery outlasts the vehicle lifetime with zero degradation of range. If such a thing were in EVs today, ICEs would all but vanish practically overnight. I think it's obvious we're still not quite there, but it is getting close.
- lukevp 7y ago
  Gasoline is already super energy dense and a car full of gasoline only gets like 3-400 mile range. Getting comparable range and < 20 min charging time is a lot more reasonable and likely.
- natch 7y ago
  Don’t absolutely need home charging although it helps. Charging at work or access to fast chargers around town also works.
  - ianai 7y ago
    I really wish batteries were a standardized, removable part. People could join a coop type thing where they drive up, swap in a fully charged battery, leave the old on a charger, and go. The problem is these battery packs tens of thousands of dollars (I think, given costs per kWh) and aren’t standardized. Seems like something the auto companies should be open to standardizing. They’ve done the same with oil - because they had to accommodate the fuel literally burning away. Edit-I get that they’re heavy, but that can be standardized away, too.
    - newnewpdro 7y ago
      Even if they were standardized, would it naturally be workable as an exchange system similar to water cooler and propane bottles? Battery packs are massive, complex, sensitive to abuse and expensive to replace. Those are very different qualities from water bottles and propane tanks. I'm genuinely curious if we have any successful exchange system examples resembling EV batteries to reference as precedence.
      - clouddrover 7y ago
        Nio is trying it in China: https://www.topgear.com/car-news/big-reads/power-shift-battery-swapping-our-way-across-china https://www.topgear.com/car-news/big-reads/power-shift-batte...
      - ianai 7y ago
        Actually possibly old style taxi cabs? Drivers rented the cars day to day, as I recall. Yes, not as much a technical issue as a legal issue. Really only need to nail the legal framework though, I think. Desktop computers didn’t start standardized, but it’s pretty mature now. I’m definitely curious if there’s not a hard reason keeping this from practicality.
    - natch 7y ago
      I used to think this too, but funny enough people seem to want to have their own batteries rather than using loaner ones that have possibly been abused by others. Also in some cars the battery pack is used to add strength and rigidity to the body, thus saving weight and adding efficiency. Harder to pull this off if it’s removable.
      - newnewpdro 7y ago
        > people seem to want to have their own batteries rather than using loaner ones that have possibly been abused by others I think that's a rational desire when you've bought the battery with your vehicle. If there were an option to have the vehicle delivered sans battery then enter into a swap program of your choosing which provided the battery that you never actually owned (why would you want to, really, it's _the_ expensive wear component most likely to be meaningfully obsoleted repeatedly), then people would probably feel very differently about it.
- adrianN 7y ago
  Almost all cars are always parked for more than twenty hours a day. Instead of extremely fast charging we can just put chargers at every parking spot, including curbside parking.
  - ptaipale 7y ago
    You're thinking of daily commuting. But some people do long drives where you don't want to stop for 24 hours to charge the car to continue. Even 2 hours is not nice.
    - adrianN 7y ago
      Once we replaced the cars of all people who don't do that so often that renting a different car for the trip is not an option we can think about that problem again. Maybe supercharger technology has improved from today's 30 minutes by then.
      - HeyLaughingBoy 7y ago
        People really need to think carefully before dragging out the "they can rent a car" thing. The issue isn't that it's not an option, it's that people don't want to do it. Most people would much rather drive their own car than a rental. Renting a car is usually something you do as a last resort.
        ptaipale 7y ago
        Another point is that the rental is not always available, at least at a reasonable price. I drive most of my kilometres during certain seasons: Christmas, Easter holiday, school holidays (when visiting parents etc). These are exactly the times when very many others also want to make similar trips, so the rental companies are out of capacity, or rather, there is surge pricing.
        adrianN 7y ago
        Yeah great, people also don't want to breathe toxic car exhaust and they also don't want to live in a +4 degree world. Sometimes you have to deal with minor inconveniences.
- ptaipale 7y ago
  A question to those who downvoted this comment: why? I'm genuinely curious. It was not nasty in any way, it was readable and presented a good argument. That you disagree should not be a reason to downvote. I don't think 2000 mile range would be that important, but >1000 km would be useful (I have a diesel car that can do this).
  - _ph_ 7y ago
    The comment is civil, but I would also think full of bad reasonings. First of all, you don't need to refuel an electric car like a gasoline one. A large part of the cars can be charged at home over night. Alternatively, at work during work day. A car spends most of its time parking somewhere. After all, you are driving it, to be somewhere. Work, mall, etc. A lot of these places could offer low-power outlets for slow charging. Gasoline cars used to offer ranges not so much more than 400 kilometers, only very modern and Diesel cars increased that number significantly. Elektric cars have reached (and in Tesla quite exceeded) that range. More improvements will happen too. But a > 1000 km range isn't what is holding electric cars back. I actually think, few electric cars will ever reach that range, unless there is some crazy breakthrough with batteries, as it makes more sense to have smaller and cheaper batteries than optimizing for an use case which doesn't matter much.
    - babuskov 7y ago
      > A large part of the cars can be charged at home over night. Alternatively, at work during work day. Most people live in buildings, not houses. Same applies for work. You don't get to charge there. A dedicated charging station that replaces gas stations is needed. > A lot of these places could offer low-power outlets for slow charging. I have no experience with US, but in many major cities in Europe, it's hard to find any parking space, let alone the one with a charging outlet. It's a problem that would require a lot of infrastructure. Anyway, those are all valid discussion points. No reason to downvote. People on HN want electric to succeed and that's fine. But downvoting anyone who points at problems... are we on Reddit now?
      - jacobr 7y ago
- hwillis 7y ago
  > For the average person, the batteries need to be recharged at least at a similar rate and range to filling a gas tank. The top Model S can charge at 250 kW, or 15.4 miles or range per minute. Theoretically the fastest gas pumps in the US (10 gal/min) do 250 miles per minute (fleet average for new cars), but in practice you really mean a 5 minute fill-up, so ~75 miles per minute. Not that it's any faster to plug in a charger than insert a pump, but <5 minutes is basically irrelevant. So currently the best commercial electric cars are losing by ~5x. A 5 minute fill up means charging at ~12-13 C. Hybrid cells regularly do 10+ C[1]. The batteries in F1 cars charge or discharge 3 times per minute[2], on average. It will not be long until full size BEVs can do 5 minute charges. The much bigger problem is actually getting the power to charge them; big charger-side batteries are expensive. [1]: https://www.greencarcongress.com/2014/09/20140915-s500phev.html https://www.greencarcongress.com/2014/09/20140915-s500phev.h... [2]: https://www.mercedes-amg-hpp.com/formula-1-engine-facts/ https://www.mercedes-amg-hpp.com/formula-1-engine-facts/
ianai 7y ago
AFAIK they’re all still not using solid state electrolytes. Those look like a breakthrough comparatively. There’s probably lots of room to breakthrough.
DennisP 7y ago
There are several battery chemistries with the potential to get 5X capacity. Maybe we can do without that but it sure wouldn't hurt. It could help price too, if you need 1/5 as much battery.

by foxes 7y ago

newnewpdro 7y ago

For the average person, the batteries need to be recharged at least at a similar rate and range to filling a gas tank. My understanding is this still requires a battery breakthrough, or at least significant improvement. The average person is a tenant without home charging as an option, they require a gas station substitute or better - ideally an obsoleting solution eliminating this waste of time altogether. Imagine if a battery breakthrough enabled 2000 mile ranges with a 5 minute recharge, and effectively unlimited charge cycles so the battery outlasts the vehicle lifetime with zero degradation of range. If such a thing were in EVs today, ICEs would all but vanish practically overnight. I think it's obvious we're still not quite there, but it is getting close.

lukevp 7y ago
Gasoline is already super energy dense and a car full of gasoline only gets like 3-400 mile range. Getting comparable range and < 20 min charging time is a lot more reasonable and likely.
natch 7y ago
Don’t absolutely need home charging although it helps. Charging at work or access to fast chargers around town also works.
- ianai 7y ago
  I really wish batteries were a standardized, removable part. People could join a coop type thing where they drive up, swap in a fully charged battery, leave the old on a charger, and go. The problem is these battery packs tens of thousands of dollars (I think, given costs per kWh) and aren’t standardized. Seems like something the auto companies should be open to standardizing. They’ve done the same with oil - because they had to accommodate the fuel literally burning away. Edit-I get that they’re heavy, but that can be standardized away, too.
  - newnewpdro 7y ago
    Even if they were standardized, would it naturally be workable as an exchange system similar to water cooler and propane bottles? Battery packs are massive, complex, sensitive to abuse and expensive to replace. Those are very different qualities from water bottles and propane tanks. I'm genuinely curious if we have any successful exchange system examples resembling EV batteries to reference as precedence.
    - clouddrover 7y ago
      Nio is trying it in China: https://www.topgear.com/car-news/big-reads/power-shift-battery-swapping-our-way-across-china https://www.topgear.com/car-news/big-reads/power-shift-batte...
    - ianai 7y ago
      Actually possibly old style taxi cabs? Drivers rented the cars day to day, as I recall. Yes, not as much a technical issue as a legal issue. Really only need to nail the legal framework though, I think. Desktop computers didn’t start standardized, but it’s pretty mature now. I’m definitely curious if there’s not a hard reason keeping this from practicality.
  - natch 7y ago
    I used to think this too, but funny enough people seem to want to have their own batteries rather than using loaner ones that have possibly been abused by others. Also in some cars the battery pack is used to add strength and rigidity to the body, thus saving weight and adding efficiency. Harder to pull this off if it’s removable.
    - newnewpdro 7y ago
      > people seem to want to have their own batteries rather than using loaner ones that have possibly been abused by others I think that's a rational desire when you've bought the battery with your vehicle. If there were an option to have the vehicle delivered sans battery then enter into a swap program of your choosing which provided the battery that you never actually owned (why would you want to, really, it's _the_ expensive wear component most likely to be meaningfully obsoleted repeatedly), then people would probably feel very differently about it.
adrianN 7y ago
Almost all cars are always parked for more than twenty hours a day. Instead of extremely fast charging we can just put chargers at every parking spot, including curbside parking.
- ptaipale 7y ago
  You're thinking of daily commuting. But some people do long drives where you don't want to stop for 24 hours to charge the car to continue. Even 2 hours is not nice.
  - adrianN 7y ago
    Once we replaced the cars of all people who don't do that so often that renting a different car for the trip is not an option we can think about that problem again. Maybe supercharger technology has improved from today's 30 minutes by then.
    - HeyLaughingBoy 7y ago
      People really need to think carefully before dragging out the "they can rent a car" thing. The issue isn't that it's not an option, it's that people don't want to do it. Most people would much rather drive their own car than a rental. Renting a car is usually something you do as a last resort.
      - ptaipale 7y ago
        Another point is that the rental is not always available, at least at a reasonable price. I drive most of my kilometres during certain seasons: Christmas, Easter holiday, school holidays (when visiting parents etc). These are exactly the times when very many others also want to make similar trips, so the rental companies are out of capacity, or rather, there is surge pricing.
      - adrianN 7y ago
        Yeah great, people also don't want to breathe toxic car exhaust and they also don't want to live in a +4 degree world. Sometimes you have to deal with minor inconveniences.
ptaipale 7y ago
A question to those who downvoted this comment: why? I'm genuinely curious. It was not nasty in any way, it was readable and presented a good argument. That you disagree should not be a reason to downvote. I don't think 2000 mile range would be that important, but >1000 km would be useful (I have a diesel car that can do this).
- _ph_ 7y ago
  The comment is civil, but I would also think full of bad reasonings. First of all, you don't need to refuel an electric car like a gasoline one. A large part of the cars can be charged at home over night. Alternatively, at work during work day. A car spends most of its time parking somewhere. After all, you are driving it, to be somewhere. Work, mall, etc. A lot of these places could offer low-power outlets for slow charging. Gasoline cars used to offer ranges not so much more than 400 kilometers, only very modern and Diesel cars increased that number significantly. Elektric cars have reached (and in Tesla quite exceeded) that range. More improvements will happen too. But a > 1000 km range isn't what is holding electric cars back. I actually think, few electric cars will ever reach that range, unless there is some crazy breakthrough with batteries, as it makes more sense to have smaller and cheaper batteries than optimizing for an use case which doesn't matter much.
  - babuskov 7y ago
    > A large part of the cars can be charged at home over night. Alternatively, at work during work day. Most people live in buildings, not houses. Same applies for work. You don't get to charge there. A dedicated charging station that replaces gas stations is needed. > A lot of these places could offer low-power outlets for slow charging. I have no experience with US, but in many major cities in Europe, it's hard to find any parking space, let alone the one with a charging outlet. It's a problem that would require a lot of infrastructure. Anyway, those are all valid discussion points. No reason to downvote. People on HN want electric to succeed and that's fine. But downvoting anyone who points at problems... are we on Reddit now?
    - jacobr 7y ago
hwillis 7y ago
> For the average person, the batteries need to be recharged at least at a similar rate and range to filling a gas tank. The top Model S can charge at 250 kW, or 15.4 miles or range per minute. Theoretically the fastest gas pumps in the US (10 gal/min) do 250 miles per minute (fleet average for new cars), but in practice you really mean a 5 minute fill-up, so ~75 miles per minute. Not that it's any faster to plug in a charger than insert a pump, but <5 minutes is basically irrelevant. So currently the best commercial electric cars are losing by ~5x. A 5 minute fill up means charging at ~12-13 C. Hybrid cells regularly do 10+ C[1]. The batteries in F1 cars charge or discharge 3 times per minute[2], on average. It will not be long until full size BEVs can do 5 minute charges. The much bigger problem is actually getting the power to charge them; big charger-side batteries are expensive. [1]: https://www.greencarcongress.com/2014/09/20140915-s500phev.html https://www.greencarcongress.com/2014/09/20140915-s500phev.h... [2]: https://www.mercedes-amg-hpp.com/formula-1-engine-facts/ https://www.mercedes-amg-hpp.com/formula-1-engine-facts/

ianai 7y ago

AFAIK they’re all still not using solid state electrolytes. Those look like a breakthrough comparatively. There’s probably lots of room to breakthrough.

DennisP 7y ago

There are several battery chemistries with the potential to get 5X capacity. Maybe we can do without that but it sure wouldn't hurt. It could help price too, if you need 1/5 as much battery.