7 ms·

What many seem to forget is 2C or 4C of warming is not an end equilibrium state, it's merely an arbitrary date of measurement (end of 21st century) for the trac

What many seem to forget is 2C or 4C of warming is not an end equilibrium state, it's merely an arbitrary date of measurement (end of 21st century) for the track we may irreparably lock in for centuries and millennia. One a tipping point tips it's damn near impossible to tip it back. That seems more than a little cavalier given the limited range of regions we find our planet's landmass in. The future looks more and more terrifying, and despite public opinion supporting action in much the world, still the political class have little to no answer anywhere...

cmurf 7y ago
Not the political class, the monied classes. No one wants to accept haircuts to their lifestyle.
- JoeSamoa 7y ago
  None of them have been alive to see a revolution.
claudeganon 7y ago
They have the answers, they’ve just decided that they’d rather the world devolve into chaos and destruction than challenge the ruling class. I know the whole Jeffrey Epstein scandal is more or less verboten on HN, but if there is one thing it has exposed, it is this truth. Those who act in service to elites will deploy the most obvious lies, evince they most pathetic cowardice, and the embrace the basest nihilism instead of confronting the reality of our circumstances and those who are its authors.
JoeSamoa 7y ago
Oh they have answers. You can see it everywhere. Haven't you noticed how authoritarian things are getting lately?
- NeedMoreTea 7y ago
  Compared to my father's generation who went through Great Depression and fought WW2, compared to the pre-Prague Spring world I was born into, with Cold War, Soviet Bloc, apartheid, US segregation and student rights riots in Paris and London, and the assorted dictatorships. Err, no I can't say we currently have an excess of authoritarianism lately. We have a slight lean back after seventy years of steady post-WW2 liberalisation, decline of deference and increasing freedoms. Economically we could have had a more interesting conversation... :)
  - JoeSamoa 7y ago
    Unwarranted surveillance, separating children from parents, the dismantling of workers rights, mobility, job security, and perks, politicians who hardly represent voters, state surveillance of political opponents, gerrymandering, efforts to silence journalists and whistle blowers, citizens united, left and right populism and extremism, alt-facts/fake news, cambridge analytica, the rise of China and it's management of Hong Kong, forced arbitration, facial recognition and various other tracking methods being refined by companies like palantir, those Boston dynamic dogs and atlas, drone usage and advances, fear mongering, rigged elections, demonizing opposition, increase in use of executive orders instead of following the democratic process, defunding of regulatory agencies like EPA, Tax breaks for the elite, loosening of banking regulations... I could probably go on, but this should be enough data points to build a clear picture of the things producing a perfect storm capable of outdoing even Hitler.
archi42 7y ago
Well, the answers won't get you (re-)elected: * Subsidize public transportation (maybe even 100%), and make it a feasible mode of transportation for as many people as possible (at least for daily commutes; bonus: many people are concentrated in cities, so start there). * Regarding daily driving: If public transportation is a feasible alternative, punish those who still use their car for commuting. * Massively increase taxes on all kinds of fossil fuels; no matter if used for driving or for electricity (initially ease this in regions with difficult/bad public transportation). * Make it easier to build regenerative energies (e.g. solar and wind) plus storage systems (e.g. pumped water or battery). * I'm personally undecided on nuclear fission, but compared to coal it could be the lesser of two evils? * On the packaging of any product (from bottled water over electronics to toothpaste) print the amount of energy used in production and for transportation. * Punish producers of goods that break early (e.g. define minimum durability requirements for various product groups). Would you elect someone with this agenda? I would have a hard time, though I think these points could all be appropriate responses to the climate crisis. Even better: Try to get elected with that ;-)
- SlowRobotAhead 7y ago
  More taxes, less freedom, more punishments. Yes, I believe this would be unpopular. However, remind me while you are punishing people for driving cars, how is the public transit outside major urban areas? Have you been outside urban areas?
  - Angostura 7y ago
    > Yes, I believe this would be unpopular. As indeed is the idea of your grand children living in a post-civilisation world
    - colejohnson66 7y ago
      OP never said the whole platform was bad. Just that public transport doesn’t work in certain areas. Especially less dense ones.
  - 7y ago
kazagistar 7y ago
I see at least two answers. - Boot out the political class who are on the payroll of corporations whose short term profit margins insist on ignoring global warming. Replace them with people who are willing to actively cut profits and luxuries if it means avoiding ecological disaster, while focusing on programs that benefit the working class to maintain democratic power. Ie socialists. - Boot out the politicians who are overly egalitarian. Enforce imperialistic extractive policies to maintain economic quality of life and create hard boundaries that can keep billions of dying refugees out. Use a philosophy of natural hierarchy of race, religion, nationality, culture, etc to maintain democratic power. Both of these seem to be way more active and successful recently, and this will likely continue.
rayiner 7y ago
That we face serious “tipping points” are not a mainstream scientific view and the IPCC has not said anything along those lines: https://www.science20.com/robert_walker/no_scientific_cliff_edge_of_12_years_to_save_planet_or_18_months_can_ipcc_challenge_deadlines_make_headlines https://www.science20.com/robert_walker/no_scientific_cliff_...
- NeedMoreTea 7y ago
  Even your link acknowledges there are tipping points, and that they matter, specifically noting Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Using the IPCC as evidence for their lack is contradictory as they themselves explicitly acknowledge they do not consider them as the full impact (and timescales) of their consequence is not well understood. Thus consensus is unlikely at best. Yet there are many thresholds that may have dramatic amplifying effects over lengthy periods (millennia). Lack of consideration of them has been a source of criticism of IPCC, and is why it's possibly safest to consider IPCC reports a "best case" scenario. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/09/tipping-points-could-exacerbate-climate-crisis-scientists-fear https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/09/tipping-... What matters is they would increasingly lock the world onto a track of rising temperatures. It matters little if the impact turns out to be serious such as melting permafrost or East Antarctic ice sheet, or less globally serious and localised such as a closedown of the North Atlantic Conveyor. How many degrees of increased warming or changed climate is far less well understood.

cmurf 7y ago

Not the political class, the monied classes. No one wants to accept haircuts to their lifestyle.

JoeSamoa 7y ago
None of them have been alive to see a revolution.

claudeganon 7y ago

They have the answers, they’ve just decided that they’d rather the world devolve into chaos and destruction than challenge the ruling class. I know the whole Jeffrey Epstein scandal is more or less verboten on HN, but if there is one thing it has exposed, it is this truth. Those who act in service to elites will deploy the most obvious lies, evince they most pathetic cowardice, and the embrace the basest nihilism instead of confronting the reality of our circumstances and those who are its authors.

JoeSamoa 7y ago

Oh they have answers. You can see it everywhere. Haven't you noticed how authoritarian things are getting lately?

NeedMoreTea 7y ago
Compared to my father's generation who went through Great Depression and fought WW2, compared to the pre-Prague Spring world I was born into, with Cold War, Soviet Bloc, apartheid, US segregation and student rights riots in Paris and London, and the assorted dictatorships. Err, no I can't say we currently have an excess of authoritarianism lately. We have a slight lean back after seventy years of steady post-WW2 liberalisation, decline of deference and increasing freedoms. Economically we could have had a more interesting conversation... :)
- JoeSamoa 7y ago
  Unwarranted surveillance, separating children from parents, the dismantling of workers rights, mobility, job security, and perks, politicians who hardly represent voters, state surveillance of political opponents, gerrymandering, efforts to silence journalists and whistle blowers, citizens united, left and right populism and extremism, alt-facts/fake news, cambridge analytica, the rise of China and it's management of Hong Kong, forced arbitration, facial recognition and various other tracking methods being refined by companies like palantir, those Boston dynamic dogs and atlas, drone usage and advances, fear mongering, rigged elections, demonizing opposition, increase in use of executive orders instead of following the democratic process, defunding of regulatory agencies like EPA, Tax breaks for the elite, loosening of banking regulations... I could probably go on, but this should be enough data points to build a clear picture of the things producing a perfect storm capable of outdoing even Hitler.

archi42 7y ago

Well, the answers won't get you (re-)elected: * Subsidize public transportation (maybe even 100%), and make it a feasible mode of transportation for as many people as possible (at least for daily commutes; bonus: many people are concentrated in cities, so start there). * Regarding daily driving: If public transportation is a feasible alternative, punish those who still use their car for commuting. * Massively increase taxes on all kinds of fossil fuels; no matter if used for driving or for electricity (initially ease this in regions with difficult/bad public transportation). * Make it easier to build regenerative energies (e.g. solar and wind) plus storage systems (e.g. pumped water or battery). * I'm personally undecided on nuclear fission, but compared to coal it could be the lesser of two evils? * On the packaging of any product (from bottled water over electronics to toothpaste) print the amount of energy used in production and for transportation. * Punish producers of goods that break early (e.g. define minimum durability requirements for various product groups). Would you elect someone with this agenda? I would have a hard time, though I think these points could all be appropriate responses to the climate crisis. Even better: Try to get elected with that ;-)

SlowRobotAhead 7y ago
More taxes, less freedom, more punishments. Yes, I believe this would be unpopular. However, remind me while you are punishing people for driving cars, how is the public transit outside major urban areas? Have you been outside urban areas?
- Angostura 7y ago
  > Yes, I believe this would be unpopular. As indeed is the idea of your grand children living in a post-civilisation world
  - colejohnson66 7y ago
    OP never said the whole platform was bad. Just that public transport doesn’t work in certain areas. Especially less dense ones.
- 7y ago

kazagistar 7y ago

I see at least two answers. - Boot out the political class who are on the payroll of corporations whose short term profit margins insist on ignoring global warming. Replace them with people who are willing to actively cut profits and luxuries if it means avoiding ecological disaster, while focusing on programs that benefit the working class to maintain democratic power. Ie socialists. - Boot out the politicians who are overly egalitarian. Enforce imperialistic extractive policies to maintain economic quality of life and create hard boundaries that can keep billions of dying refugees out. Use a philosophy of natural hierarchy of race, religion, nationality, culture, etc to maintain democratic power. Both of these seem to be way more active and successful recently, and this will likely continue.

rayiner 7y ago

That we face serious “tipping points” are not a mainstream scientific view and the IPCC has not said anything along those lines: https://www.science20.com/robert_walker/no_scientific_cliff_edge_of_12_years_to_save_planet_or_18_months_can_ipcc_challenge_deadlines_make_headlines https://www.science20.com/robert_walker/no_scientific_cliff_...

NeedMoreTea 7y ago
Even your link acknowledges there are tipping points, and that they matter, specifically noting Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Using the IPCC as evidence for their lack is contradictory as they themselves explicitly acknowledge they do not consider them as the full impact (and timescales) of their consequence is not well understood. Thus consensus is unlikely at best. Yet there are many thresholds that may have dramatic amplifying effects over lengthy periods (millennia). Lack of consideration of them has been a source of criticism of IPCC, and is why it's possibly safest to consider IPCC reports a "best case" scenario. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/09/tipping-points-could-exacerbate-climate-crisis-scientists-fear https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/09/tipping-... What matters is they would increasingly lock the world onto a track of rising temperatures. It matters little if the impact turns out to be serious such as melting permafrost or East Antarctic ice sheet, or less globally serious and localised such as a closedown of the North Atlantic Conveyor. How many degrees of increased warming or changed climate is far less well understood.