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I think paper book sales are doomed for long-term decline. On what grounds, may I ask? There currently doesn't seem to be a long-term declining trend in paper

I think paper book sales are doomed for long-term decline. On what grounds, may I ask? There currently doesn't seem to be a long-term declining trend in paper book sales, so are you expecting a significant change in technology or society that will cause a long-term decline? Or (possibly) did you conclude this (quite reasonably) when there was such a trend and haven't checked recently?

lmm 7y ago
I think we'll see the decline happen once there's a generation that grew up with ebooks as an option. All the reasons people give for preferring paper books seem to amount to habit and nostalgia; people who've grown up taking Kindles on holiday will see no reason not to use them all the time.
- blotter_paper 7y ago
  I mostly agree, despite having nostalgia for dead trees myself. One area that I think paper books are still actually superior in is their data consistency; a paper book is still mostly readable after hitting it with a sledge hammer or spilling coffee on it. I will never replace my collection of survival and repair manuals with a Kindle, even though I use a Kindle more often than dead trees in day to day life.
- EliRivers 7y ago
  All the reasons people give for preferring paper books seem to amount to habit and nostalgia I disagree. Here are some reasons for prefering paper books that are not habit or nostalgia: Longevity. Reliability. Isolation and permanence of content - nobody is going to come into my house and edit my physical books. Some eReader eco-systems are robust in this regard; others remain under the control of a thrid party. Ease of mark-up, and the range of mark-up available is an order of magnitude superior to those of eBooks. Phenomenally intuitive bookmarking interface. So easy to bookmark different places and so fast and easy to use those bookmarks. High-quality images and colours. Screen size; I have many books that present a large, very high resolution view. For books that benefit from it - art books in particular - this is a real advantage. The best eBook reader can't compare, and small kindles and the like are just terrible in comparison for this. Large eBook reader systems such as a desktop PC with a huge, high resolution monitor is better, but this is something of a high-cost option. Multi-screen - I can open a lot of physical books at once, and they simply expand into available space (really fast, too - the loading time is so short that I barely notice). Having five or six ebooks open at once and flitting between them quickly is either impossible or much less satisfactory than the physical book version. I habitually have three or more physical books open at once, and five or six is not uncommon. I suppose you could call this one "habit", in that I am in the habit of being able to look at five or six books at once, easily flitting between them at speed. Realtive self-contained operation; they rely only on a light-source being available to operate for decades or even longer. eBooks require much more support in terms of software, power and hardware. Random-access interface; the speed with which I can change pages (not just consecutive pages, but large numbers of pages at once) using a physical book is an order of magnitude better than an eBook, and I will often find part of a book I seek using this random access method. Even when I am familiar with an eBook's layout, quickly finding a particular section is just much more clumsy. The reading experience is damaged by this inferior aspect of the interface.

lmm 7y ago

I think we'll see the decline happen once there's a generation that grew up with ebooks as an option. All the reasons people give for preferring paper books seem to amount to habit and nostalgia; people who've grown up taking Kindles on holiday will see no reason not to use them all the time.

blotter_paper 7y ago
I mostly agree, despite having nostalgia for dead trees myself. One area that I think paper books are still actually superior in is their data consistency; a paper book is still mostly readable after hitting it with a sledge hammer or spilling coffee on it. I will never replace my collection of survival and repair manuals with a Kindle, even though I use a Kindle more often than dead trees in day to day life.
EliRivers 7y ago
All the reasons people give for preferring paper books seem to amount to habit and nostalgia I disagree. Here are some reasons for prefering paper books that are not habit or nostalgia: Longevity. Reliability. Isolation and permanence of content - nobody is going to come into my house and edit my physical books. Some eReader eco-systems are robust in this regard; others remain under the control of a thrid party. Ease of mark-up, and the range of mark-up available is an order of magnitude superior to those of eBooks. Phenomenally intuitive bookmarking interface. So easy to bookmark different places and so fast and easy to use those bookmarks. High-quality images and colours. Screen size; I have many books that present a large, very high resolution view. For books that benefit from it - art books in particular - this is a real advantage. The best eBook reader can't compare, and small kindles and the like are just terrible in comparison for this. Large eBook reader systems such as a desktop PC with a huge, high resolution monitor is better, but this is something of a high-cost option. Multi-screen - I can open a lot of physical books at once, and they simply expand into available space (really fast, too - the loading time is so short that I barely notice). Having five or six ebooks open at once and flitting between them quickly is either impossible or much less satisfactory than the physical book version. I habitually have three or more physical books open at once, and five or six is not uncommon. I suppose you could call this one "habit", in that I am in the habit of being able to look at five or six books at once, easily flitting between them at speed. Realtive self-contained operation; they rely only on a light-source being available to operate for decades or even longer. eBooks require much more support in terms of software, power and hardware. Random-access interface; the speed with which I can change pages (not just consecutive pages, but large numbers of pages at once) using a physical book is an order of magnitude better than an eBook, and I will often find part of a book I seek using this random access method. Even when I am familiar with an eBook's layout, quickly finding a particular section is just much more clumsy. The reading experience is damaged by this inferior aspect of the interface.