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Those things change fast. I remember when in the 90s most people preferred POP3 (for mail transfer), because for privacy reasons they didn't want their provide

by gst 16y ago

Those things change fast. I remember when in the 90s most people preferred POP3 (for mail transfer), because for privacy reasons they didn't want their provider to have access to their mails. And quite a large number of people used encryption, even if they weren't technically inclined. Today almost no one cares about privacy anymore. Expectations have completly changed within a century. Today it's, e.g., common for most people to store all of their chat logs on Google's server, without regularly deleting them. Or another example: Today we have much more advanced surveillance systems used against the general population than the techniques used in the DDR. For most people back in the DDR those surveillance systems where not acceptable. Today most people accept them if it helps the government "to find terrorists and criminals". If privacy expectations can change within a century, why shouldn't the expectations on one's car change?

joeyo 16y ago
> And quite a large number of people used encryption, even > if they weren't technically inclined. I agree with your broader point that expectations and perceptions can change fast, but I don't ever remember a time when "quite a large number" of people used email encryption. Perhaps a larger group of users then than now had a desire for email encryption.
bugmenot 16y ago
That's an interesting analogy, but I don't think it's fully applicable in this case. At least in developed nations, the demographics and characteristics of the average driver won't shift as much over the next two decades as those of the average e-mail user have over the past two decades. If the adoption rates of a given technology don't change dramatically, then any shift is like to be more reflective of general societal trends. So in nations that are currently considered third world, but won't be in twenty years, then I think it's much more ripe for the kind of shift you're talking about. Another possibility, though, is that the Boomers will start hitting that age where their ability to drive safely diminishes relatively quickly, and will desire to keep their current mobility. If mass transit doesn't improve much (and it probably won't, given the distances Americans tend to cover and the relatively low population density), that could be just the kind force needed to create an emerging market. Then again, we Americans are pretty lousy at learning to actually drive well, and seem to love anything that makes driving easier for the unskilled (see the recent rash of parallel parking assists), so I could be completely underestimating a technology that would prevent anyone from ever having to learn to do anything well, ever.

by gst 16y ago

joeyo 16y ago

> And quite a large number of people used encryption, even > if they weren't technically inclined. I agree with your broader point that expectations and perceptions can change fast, but I don't ever remember a time when "quite a large number" of people used email encryption. Perhaps a larger group of users then than now had a desire for email encryption.

bugmenot 16y ago

That's an interesting analogy, but I don't think it's fully applicable in this case. At least in developed nations, the demographics and characteristics of the average driver won't shift as much over the next two decades as those of the average e-mail user have over the past two decades. If the adoption rates of a given technology don't change dramatically, then any shift is like to be more reflective of general societal trends. So in nations that are currently considered third world, but won't be in twenty years, then I think it's much more ripe for the kind of shift you're talking about. Another possibility, though, is that the Boomers will start hitting that age where their ability to drive safely diminishes relatively quickly, and will desire to keep their current mobility. If mass transit doesn't improve much (and it probably won't, given the distances Americans tend to cover and the relatively low population density), that could be just the kind force needed to create an emerging market. Then again, we Americans are pretty lousy at learning to actually drive well, and seem to love anything that makes driving easier for the unskilled (see the recent rash of parallel parking assists), so I could be completely underestimating a technology that would prevent anyone from ever having to learn to do anything well, ever.