4 ms·

2030 is less than 20 years away. Can we look back on 1990 and really feel like an equivalent amount of innovation happened? I feel like these predictions are to

by city41 16y ago

2030 is less than 20 years away. Can we look back on 1990 and really feel like an equivalent amount of innovation happened? I feel like these predictions are too optimistic. Not to mention just because we have the technology to do something doesn't mean it's practical, desirable, profitable or many other things that are required for something to become reality.

endtime 16y ago
In 1991 (20 years ago), DOS 5.0 was released. In 2005 (14 years later), autonomous robotics cars successfully navigated a course in the desert. Two years later, they did the same in a city, with no traffic violations. In 2007 (16 years later), for a few hundred bucks you could carry several orders of magnitude more computing power in your pocket, with remote access to the sum of all human knowledge. Today, we have affordable 3D printing and are on the cusp of quantum computing. Cryogenic preservation is offered at feasible prices by multiple companies. Political revolutions happen with live commentary which is beamed through space into my pocket. Several new nanotech-based products are released to market every week. If you don't stop and look around, it's easy to miss the fact that we live in the freaking future. That said, I'm not sure I buy that space tourism will be that big in 20 years, nor that poverty rates will be so low. But the rest don't seem outrageous at all.
sp3000 16y ago
If I told you twenty years ago that you would be able to pull a handheld device out of your pocket and access the sum of all human knowledge instantaneously that would be crazy. But wait… you can also listen to your entire music collection, or any digital music ever produced, watch movies, play complex games, read any book, have GPS tracking, take pictures, made videos, make phone calls and video calls... all on one device. I think the average person would call you insane back then. Its easy to say now how it was bound to happen but as the recent Katie couric and gumbel clip shows they didn’t even know what the internet was in 1994! In 1990 most people didn't even have computers. Cell phones didn't even start becoming commonplace in the US until less than 10 years ago. As we move through life gradually we don’t notice as much the continuous change that occurs all around us everyday. But if I transported you directly from 1990 to today, you better believe you would be astonished. Humanity in general progresses at an exponential rate. More change happened in the 20th century than all of previous history. More change will probably occur in the first 25-30 years of the 21st century than the entire 20th century. So yes, a lot of these things are possible. And other , much more interesting things we can't imagine or even comprehend now will be around in 2030, too.
AndrewDucker 16y ago
In 1990 the Internet was not a flicker on the radar of business. Nowadays, it's accessible from a computer I can fit into my pocket, and it affects pretty much everyone on the planet. I think people underestimate how much change has happened in the last 20 years.
kenjackson 16y ago
There's a great book by someone, whose name I can't remember, who talks about how technological advances are continuous, but change industries. Right now we're in the midst of the mobile/internet age. This book talks about how there were periods in the past with cars (flying cars and crazy gas mileage that never panned out), buildings (skyscraper height, after YoY growth, just went flat), planes (there used to be talk of multi-mach commuter planes). The thing that consistently doesn't get predicted is where the next big tech spike will occur. In 1990 wired house phones were still common. The iPhone would be crazy to see. No one can predict these things, but my guess is that the next big jump will be in medicine. People will say, "can you believe 20 years that people went to the doctor to diagnose things? This device you stand in front of (and can talk to) is about 20X more accurate than the best human doctor".
raphar 16y ago
1990 predictions by Ray Kurzweil in The Age of Intelligent Machines. Strangely (or on purpose) some topics are also in the OP: Early 2000s . Translating telephones allow people to speak to each other in different languages. . Machines designed to transcribe speech into computer text allow deaf people to understand spoken words. . Exoskeletal, robotic leg prostheses allow the paraplegic to walk. . Telephone calls are routinely screened by intelligent answering machines that ask questions to determine the call's nature and priority. . "Cybernetic chauffeurs" can drive cars for humans and can be retrofitted into existing cars. They work by communicating with other vehicles and with sensors embedded along the roads. Early 21st century . The classroom is dominated by computers. Intelligent courseware that can tailor itself to each student by recognizing their strengths and weaknesses. Media technology allows students to manipulate and interact with virtual depictions of the systems and personalities they are studying. . A small number of highly skilled people dominates the entire production sector. Tailoring of products for individuals is common. . Drugs are designed and tested in simulations that mimic the human body. . Blind people navigate and read text using machines that can visually recognize features of their environment. 2010 . PCs are capable of answering queries by accessing information wirelessly via the Internet. 2020-2050 . Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people. . By 2020, there will be a new World government. 2020-2070 . A computer passes the Turing Test, becoming the first true Artificial Intelligence. taken from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil#The_Age_of_Intelligent_Machines_.281990.29 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzwei...

by city41 16y ago

endtime 16y ago

In 1991 (20 years ago), DOS 5.0 was released. In 2005 (14 years later), autonomous robotics cars successfully navigated a course in the desert. Two years later, they did the same in a city, with no traffic violations. In 2007 (16 years later), for a few hundred bucks you could carry several orders of magnitude more computing power in your pocket, with remote access to the sum of all human knowledge. Today, we have affordable 3D printing and are on the cusp of quantum computing. Cryogenic preservation is offered at feasible prices by multiple companies. Political revolutions happen with live commentary which is beamed through space into my pocket. Several new nanotech-based products are released to market every week. If you don't stop and look around, it's easy to miss the fact that we live in the freaking future. That said, I'm not sure I buy that space tourism will be that big in 20 years, nor that poverty rates will be so low. But the rest don't seem outrageous at all.

sp3000 16y ago

If I told you twenty years ago that you would be able to pull a handheld device out of your pocket and access the sum of all human knowledge instantaneously that would be crazy. But wait… you can also listen to your entire music collection, or any digital music ever produced, watch movies, play complex games, read any book, have GPS tracking, take pictures, made videos, make phone calls and video calls... all on one device. I think the average person would call you insane back then. Its easy to say now how it was bound to happen but as the recent Katie couric and gumbel clip shows they didn’t even know what the internet was in 1994! In 1990 most people didn't even have computers. Cell phones didn't even start becoming commonplace in the US until less than 10 years ago. As we move through life gradually we don’t notice as much the continuous change that occurs all around us everyday. But if I transported you directly from 1990 to today, you better believe you would be astonished. Humanity in general progresses at an exponential rate. More change happened in the 20th century than all of previous history. More change will probably occur in the first 25-30 years of the 21st century than the entire 20th century. So yes, a lot of these things are possible. And other , much more interesting things we can't imagine or even comprehend now will be around in 2030, too.

AndrewDucker 16y ago

In 1990 the Internet was not a flicker on the radar of business. Nowadays, it's accessible from a computer I can fit into my pocket, and it affects pretty much everyone on the planet. I think people underestimate how much change has happened in the last 20 years.

kenjackson 16y ago

There's a great book by someone, whose name I can't remember, who talks about how technological advances are continuous, but change industries. Right now we're in the midst of the mobile/internet age. This book talks about how there were periods in the past with cars (flying cars and crazy gas mileage that never panned out), buildings (skyscraper height, after YoY growth, just went flat), planes (there used to be talk of multi-mach commuter planes). The thing that consistently doesn't get predicted is where the next big tech spike will occur. In 1990 wired house phones were still common. The iPhone would be crazy to see. No one can predict these things, but my guess is that the next big jump will be in medicine. People will say, "can you believe 20 years that people went to the doctor to diagnose things? This device you stand in front of (and can talk to) is about 20X more accurate than the best human doctor".

raphar 16y ago

1990 predictions by Ray Kurzweil in The Age of Intelligent Machines. Strangely (or on purpose) some topics are also in the OP: Early 2000s . Translating telephones allow people to speak to each other in different languages. . Machines designed to transcribe speech into computer text allow deaf people to understand spoken words. . Exoskeletal, robotic leg prostheses allow the paraplegic to walk. . Telephone calls are routinely screened by intelligent answering machines that ask questions to determine the call's nature and priority. . "Cybernetic chauffeurs" can drive cars for humans and can be retrofitted into existing cars. They work by communicating with other vehicles and with sensors embedded along the roads. Early 21st century . The classroom is dominated by computers. Intelligent courseware that can tailor itself to each student by recognizing their strengths and weaknesses. Media technology allows students to manipulate and interact with virtual depictions of the systems and personalities they are studying. . A small number of highly skilled people dominates the entire production sector. Tailoring of products for individuals is common. . Drugs are designed and tested in simulations that mimic the human body. . Blind people navigate and read text using machines that can visually recognize features of their environment. 2010 . PCs are capable of answering queries by accessing information wirelessly via the Internet. 2020-2050 . Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people. . By 2020, there will be a new World government. 2020-2070 . A computer passes the Turing Test, becoming the first true Artificial Intelligence. taken from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil#The_Age_of_Intelligent_Machines_.281990.29 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzwei...