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Property crime is not down. It ticked down briefly earlier this year, unsurprisingly. Crime numbers vary. But you can see here, https://sfgov.org/scorecards/pub

by wahern 7y ago

Property crime is not down. It ticked down briefly earlier this year, unsurprisingly. Crime numbers vary. But you can see here, https://sfgov.org/scorecards/public-safety/violent-crime-rate-and-property-crime-rate https://sfgov.org/scorecards/public-safety/violent-crime-rat..., that they've quickly rebounded as of August, 2019.[1] The trend line is clear. Look, I supported sentencing and enforcement reform at least as much anyone, but we can't hide from the facts. It's one thing to say that these facts don't prove a causal relationship to sentencing reform, etc. That's absolutely fair. But it's another to deny or diminish the problems. We can't be defensive, fearful of consequences to reform efforts. If we can criticize the tough on crime crowd for ignoring 20 years of steadily decreasing crime, then we should be prepared to recognize when the numbers don't go our way. Facts aren't for our convenience; they keep us honest and grounded. [1] See the first slide which includes August, 2019. The second slide with the property crime breakouts end in May, before the regression to the mean.

sharkmerry 7y ago
That was burglaries that the stats said from the article. Your data is interesting but it also shows crime is trending down if dates are limited to 2017-2019, which the data you presented only goes to 2010 so doesnt really show long term trends either
- wahern 7y ago
  10 years is surely long enough to establish a new, local trend. (The graph starts January 2009, not 2010.) And starting from 2009 has more legitimacy than selecting any random 2-year period. What makes 2017 significant? Did Trump's election bring less crime? 2009 was the bottom of the recession and has become the baseline for examining many socio-economic trends across the country. 2011 was also the beginning of serious criminal justice reform in California; it was the year the state began to empty its prisons. What remains down is violent crime, notwithstanding several high-profile assaults this past year, many of which are incident to property crimes. Arguing that if you go back far enough things are still improving is like arguing wealth inequality isn't a legitimate issue because even the poor have televisions and refrigerators.

by wahern 7y ago

sharkmerry 7y ago

That was burglaries that the stats said from the article. Your data is interesting but it also shows crime is trending down if dates are limited to 2017-2019, which the data you presented only goes to 2010 so doesnt really show long term trends either

wahern 7y ago
10 years is surely long enough to establish a new, local trend. (The graph starts January 2009, not 2010.) And starting from 2009 has more legitimacy than selecting any random 2-year period. What makes 2017 significant? Did Trump's election bring less crime? 2009 was the bottom of the recession and has become the baseline for examining many socio-economic trends across the country. 2011 was also the beginning of serious criminal justice reform in California; it was the year the state began to empty its prisons. What remains down is violent crime, notwithstanding several high-profile assaults this past year, many of which are incident to property crimes. Arguing that if you go back far enough things are still improving is like arguing wealth inequality isn't a legitimate issue because even the poor have televisions and refrigerators.