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In case someone is not familiar with Pascal's wager, here is a table that shows the expected values: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_wager#Analysis_wit
by ivan_ah 7y ago
In case someone is not familiar with Pascal's wager, here is a table that shows the expected values:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_wager#Analysis_with_decision_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_wager#Analysis_with... (the appearance of infinity breaks the decision theory...)
- MaxBarraclough 7y agoPascal's Wager fails for the simpler reason that it ignores the possibility that believing in god could send you to hell. I see a similar problem here. Pascal should consider the possibility that the mugger will use his (Pascal's) silly action as the basis for punishment, in place of the promised reward. Slim probability, potentially very high cost. The fact that this risk has gone unstated doesn't mean it isn't there.
- adamchalmers 7y agoI agree. This problem is still useful though, because to analyse a lot of counterfactual muggers, you must be able to analyse one mugger!
- MaxBarraclough 7y agoI agree that both problems are worth analysing, even if they're both absurd. Same goes for the Hangman's Paradox, a personal favourite. [0] I gather that Pascal had never intended Pascal's Wager to be a watertight argument, it was intended more as a plaything for showing how unlikely it was anyone could make a watertight case for the existence of God. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hangman%27s_Paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hangman%27s_Paradox