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John Paulson is really interesting in that he really played the entire credit cycle. He shorted it and then turned long at the right time and has been profiting
by jakarta 16y ago
John Paulson is really interesting in that he really played the entire credit cycle. He shorted it and then turned long at the right time and has been profiting from the recovery.
Most of the other guys who shorted the bubble got the part after wrong. They expected these doomsday/cataclysmic scenarios which never arrived.
I think the underlying lesson is that as an investor, when you are thinking of big picture themes, you really have to keep an open mind and have a willingness to change positions. Soros demonstrated that with his career.
There are tons of one hit wonders in the investment world because they let their egos get the better of them.
- jsm386 16y agoThere was an interesting article in the Boston Globe the other day about this: There’s no great, complex explanation for why people who get one big thing right get most everything else wrong, argues Denrell. It’s simple: Those who correctly predict extreme events tend to have a greater tendency to make extreme predictions; and those who make extreme predictions tend to spend most of the time being wrong — on account of most of their predictions being, well, pretty extreme. There are few occurrences so out of the ordinary that someone, somewhere won’t have seen them coming, even if that person has seldom been right about anything else. http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2011/01/09/that_guy_who_called_the_big_one_dont_listen_to_him/?page=full http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2011/01/09/...