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Suppose you've just had a newborn. The doctor offers to perform surgery on your child which 10% of the time kills them, and 90% of the time extends their life e
by tomjakubowski 7y ago
Suppose you've just had a newborn. The doctor offers to perform surgery on your child which 10% of the time kills them, and 90% of the time extends their life expectancy 30%. Do you agree?
- TylerE 7y agoAbsolutely.
- tomjakubowski 7y agoI don't think so. All else equal, a 75 year old is more likely to drop dead tomorrow than a 25 year old (or healthy newborn) is, so the 10% death probability is less of a problem for them. Moreover, the years at the end of one's life are not quite the same as years of youth.
- TylerE 7y agoThat's exactly why this is an _easier_ question for a newborn... the 30% is on their entire life and not their remaining years. Like, if the upside is living to 80 instead of 50, that's easier than it being the difference between living 5 months and 6 months.
- cgriswald 7y agoSure, but that 10% chance for a newborn represents basically their entire life while for a 50 year old it’s a life mostly already lived.
- oldgradstudent 7y agoObviously not. No sane person would believe such a promise. Just imagine the scale and length of the clinical trials that would be required to test such a claim.