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>Ps. Long AMD So you recommend to buy AMD stock now? Or TSMC? Or is it already too late for that? The share price already went up from 28 to 38 since October

paulmd 7y ago
AMD has been overbought by brand fanboys/"amateur investors" egging each other on (see: r/AMD_Stock) and is now effectively pricing in a massive amount of expected future growth. Probably decades worth. For context: Intel currently has a P/E ratio of 13.57, which is 70th percentile of tech stocks. AMD currently has a P/E ratio of 201.89, which is 5th percentile of tech stocks. https://www.gurufocus.com/term/pettm/intc/PE-Ratiottm https://www.gurufocus.com/term/pettm/intc/PE-Ratiottm https://www.gurufocus.com/term/pettm/intc/PE-Ratiottm https://www.gurufocus.com/term/pettm/intc/PE-Ratiottm AMD as a company has great potential in the long term, but still barely makes any money today. Like, AMD is hoping to double their server marketshare (only part of the company) by the end of 2020... which will take them to... almost 10% of the market. It's real easy to make big percentage gains when you have 0% share of the market. The AMD of 2016 had nowhere else to go but up.
- NicoJuicy 7y ago
  Server, desktop, laptop and video cards. Lots of room if they break Intel's monopoly though. Intel had 16 billion revenue in 2018 and AMD "profits" from TSMC and their clients ( eg. Apple, Nvidia,... ) In the server market, it seems that they are partially breaking Intel's monopoly. Today's news in Intel won't change that perspective. P/e is also a bad ratio if a company invests a lot. But yeah, a lot of hype on the stock. Intel is keep getting hit hard though. Benchmarks, security issues, delays, failing at 7-10nm. They are currently still holding the monopoly though.
  - NicoJuicy 7y ago
    Fyi, Amazon's P/e was even 1.100 at a time. P/e is not the best indicator for a company investing/researching and selling in lower prices. The AMD product line-up proves that they are investing a lot. What I see lately is that AMD is raising prices. This seems like a good indicator of how they are positioning themselves versus the market.
- mythz 7y ago
  Your bias is showing with your "brand fanboys/amateur investors" slurs. Their P/E is an irrelevant measure for AMD's market value, as it was for AMZN when they were aiming for 0 profit and re-invest everything towards growth. They're obviously interested in maximizing R&D and selling their chips at very competitive pricing over profit which currently offers much better value over Intel's chips. AMD only made 120M in profit last quarter on 1.8B revenue up 9% YoY, Intel made 6B profit down 6% YoY. How much more likely is AMD to double their profits to 240M then Intel is to 12B? If the market perception of AMD's chip superiority and OEM vendors start preferring AMD over Intel it could happen within the very near future, not decades out. Amazon only recently started to turn on profits after achieving dominance in a number of markets, I don't expect AMD to focus on profits until they're able to get much higher market penetration so I expect their focus is going to continue to be on R&D and low margins. So their P/E will remain high along with their potential for future growth.
NicoJuicy 7y ago
I won't recommend anything. The p/e is too bad to recommend it, Warren Buffet would think I'm a fool :p But I do think that AMD has enough space too grow the next year: - servers - laptops - desktops ( OEM ) And I'm curious if their video card line-up will be as good as their CPU line-up. Intel had 16 billion revenue in 2018. My guess is they will take a lot of that the coming years.

paulmd 7y ago

AMD has been overbought by brand fanboys/"amateur investors" egging each other on (see: r/AMD_Stock) and is now effectively pricing in a massive amount of expected future growth. Probably decades worth. For context: Intel currently has a P/E ratio of 13.57, which is 70th percentile of tech stocks. AMD currently has a P/E ratio of 201.89, which is 5th percentile of tech stocks. https://www.gurufocus.com/term/pettm/intc/PE-Ratiottm https://www.gurufocus.com/term/pettm/intc/PE-Ratiottm https://www.gurufocus.com/term/pettm/intc/PE-Ratiottm https://www.gurufocus.com/term/pettm/intc/PE-Ratiottm AMD as a company has great potential in the long term, but still barely makes any money today. Like, AMD is hoping to double their server marketshare (only part of the company) by the end of 2020... which will take them to... almost 10% of the market. It's real easy to make big percentage gains when you have 0% share of the market. The AMD of 2016 had nowhere else to go but up.

NicoJuicy 7y ago
Server, desktop, laptop and video cards. Lots of room if they break Intel's monopoly though. Intel had 16 billion revenue in 2018 and AMD "profits" from TSMC and their clients ( eg. Apple, Nvidia,... ) In the server market, it seems that they are partially breaking Intel's monopoly. Today's news in Intel won't change that perspective. P/e is also a bad ratio if a company invests a lot. But yeah, a lot of hype on the stock. Intel is keep getting hit hard though. Benchmarks, security issues, delays, failing at 7-10nm. They are currently still holding the monopoly though.
- NicoJuicy 7y ago
  Fyi, Amazon's P/e was even 1.100 at a time. P/e is not the best indicator for a company investing/researching and selling in lower prices. The AMD product line-up proves that they are investing a lot. What I see lately is that AMD is raising prices. This seems like a good indicator of how they are positioning themselves versus the market.
mythz 7y ago
Your bias is showing with your "brand fanboys/amateur investors" slurs. Their P/E is an irrelevant measure for AMD's market value, as it was for AMZN when they were aiming for 0 profit and re-invest everything towards growth. They're obviously interested in maximizing R&D and selling their chips at very competitive pricing over profit which currently offers much better value over Intel's chips. AMD only made 120M in profit last quarter on 1.8B revenue up 9% YoY, Intel made 6B profit down 6% YoY. How much more likely is AMD to double their profits to 240M then Intel is to 12B? If the market perception of AMD's chip superiority and OEM vendors start preferring AMD over Intel it could happen within the very near future, not decades out. Amazon only recently started to turn on profits after achieving dominance in a number of markets, I don't expect AMD to focus on profits until they're able to get much higher market penetration so I expect their focus is going to continue to be on R&D and low margins. So their P/E will remain high along with their potential for future growth.

NicoJuicy 7y ago

I won't recommend anything. The p/e is too bad to recommend it, Warren Buffet would think I'm a fool :p But I do think that AMD has enough space too grow the next year: - servers - laptops - desktops ( OEM ) And I'm curious if their video card line-up will be as good as their CPU line-up. Intel had 16 billion revenue in 2018. My guess is they will take a lot of that the coming years.