3 ms·
In financial markets, expectations of future gain and loss impacts pricing today. In exactly the same manner expectations that the future value of real estate
by arbitrary_name 7y ago
In financial markets, expectations of future gain and loss impacts pricing today.
In exactly the same manner expectations that the future value of real estate may be impacted by climate change should be reflected in the price today. Even if the house I buy today does not flood in 20 years (my lifetime), in 20 years I will have to sell to someone who will have an investment horizon of 40 years from today (my 20 years, plus their hypothetical 20 years). Since that person may demand a lower price from me in 20 years, I should factor that into the price I pay today, since it effects my returns.
As a real example, I factored in expected flood insurance pricing rises on some riverfront property I purchased recently in Australia. The insurance price increases are driven by industry and government modelling to reflect tropical storm intensity and frequency and an increased risk that storm surges overlap high tides. Sea level rises contribute to the risk, but not in a meaningful level.
The end result was that my total cost of ownership increased by single digit %. I reduced my bid price accordingly to meet my % return requirement from the investment.
To put it concretely - my future expectation of increased climate-driven risk reduced the value of the asset to me.
Your confidence is misplaced, and your condescension is irksome.