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You just classified the difference in storm surge as 6%. That is too small to be a defining part of your final decision.

by eloff 7y ago

Retric 7y ago
People want to build as close to the ocean as they can, they also want to build in a safety factors After all that 34.8’ is the highest level ever recorded. Is 30’ is good enough how about 25’? And when you go down that road it gets very non linear with 10’ being almost worthless and 40’ near total protection from storm surges. Thus it’s not a question of absolute levels, but rather safety factors and insurance premiums that are at issue. PS: Though this is simplified as it’s both storm surge and high waves that cause problems, but that’s another story.
- eloff 7y ago
  If you're making any decision with only 6% tolerances on one side and vague things like storms and tides on the other, you're in trouble. I just don't see that as making the difference in a decision to buy or not buy. I don't even see it making the list of things to weigh.
  - Retric 7y ago
    Ahh, you’re still thinking if that as 6%. Hatteras NC is 50 miles long generally less than a mile wide and the absolutely highest point is 56’ above sea level. More topically for these islands Nags Head, North Carolina averages 3’ above sea level at high tide. People build everything on stilts and It’s simply accepted that it’s all temporary at some level. As the barrier islands essentially make up the only beach front property across half of North Carolina, that’s the only real option for vacation homes like this. That and fishing support a relatively small population, but the total investment on these islands adds into the billions. In that context 2’ means far more than a 6% difference. Little there can withstand a cat 4+ hurricane even without the ocean, however slowly loosing inches is already making a difference.
    - eloff 7y ago
      Well 2ft of 3ft is no longer 6%, that's a material difference that matters if you want to buy there. What I would consider is what it would cost to raise the land by that 2ft. I think that's so little by comparison to what the land costs that you can practically discount the effect of climate change on your decision. People hated on all of my comments in this entire thread, but at the end of the day I put my faith in the math and I think they're all wrong and I'm right.

You just classified the difference in storm surge as 6%. That is too small to be a defining part of your final decision.

by eloff 7y ago

You just classified the difference in storm surge as 6%. That is too small to be a defining part of your final decision.

Retric 7y ago

People want to build as close to the ocean as they can, they also want to build in a safety factors After all that 34.8’ is the highest level ever recorded. Is 30’ is good enough how about 25’? And when you go down that road it gets very non linear with 10’ being almost worthless and 40’ near total protection from storm surges. Thus it’s not a question of absolute levels, but rather safety factors and insurance premiums that are at issue. PS: Though this is simplified as it’s both storm surge and high waves that cause problems, but that’s another story.

eloff 7y ago
If you're making any decision with only 6% tolerances on one side and vague things like storms and tides on the other, you're in trouble. I just don't see that as making the difference in a decision to buy or not buy. I don't even see it making the list of things to weigh.
- Retric 7y ago
  Ahh, you’re still thinking if that as 6%. Hatteras NC is 50 miles long generally less than a mile wide and the absolutely highest point is 56’ above sea level. More topically for these islands Nags Head, North Carolina averages 3’ above sea level at high tide. People build everything on stilts and It’s simply accepted that it’s all temporary at some level. As the barrier islands essentially make up the only beach front property across half of North Carolina, that’s the only real option for vacation homes like this. That and fishing support a relatively small population, but the total investment on these islands adds into the billions. In that context 2’ means far more than a 6% difference. Little there can withstand a cat 4+ hurricane even without the ocean, however slowly loosing inches is already making a difference.
  - eloff 7y ago
    Well 2ft of 3ft is no longer 6%, that's a material difference that matters if you want to buy there. What I would consider is what it would cost to raise the land by that 2ft. I think that's so little by comparison to what the land costs that you can practically discount the effect of climate change on your decision. People hated on all of my comments in this entire thread, but at the end of the day I put my faith in the math and I think they're all wrong and I'm right.