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The problem is that these systems are fundamentally unable to distinguish causation from correlation. Which is admittedly a hard prob even for humans, but at le

The problem is that these systems are fundamentally unable to distinguish causation from correlation. Which is admittedly a hard prob even for humans, but at least we have some capacity to tease these out. In this case, the increased crime in these communities are not caused by their minority status, but rather from a multitude of other factors with historical and societal origins.

whatshisface 7y ago
Cynically, does a bank care why zipcode is correlated with failure to repay loans? Forcing the bank to act as if the probability distributions are different from how they really are sounds like a very awkward way to redistribute wealth. Maybe the right answer would be reparations for whatever society did to everyone in those communities and then total freedom of association for banks and others to give loans as they see fit. Another option would be to give a bad credit subsidy to people in the cases where their low estimated trustworthiness is judged to be due to someone else's error. For example if a factory gives me lead poisoning, my interest rates go up because people with high blood lead content are less likely to keep good credit, but the factory has to pay the difference because they were liable. This reminds me of the argument for the UBI. Instead of having thousands of tiny chairty programs sprinkled all over society, why not let the economy make itself as efficient as possible and then hand out the charity in units of dollars?
- empath75 7y ago
  Redlining: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redlining https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redlining
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
hr5eaqhera 7y ago
> unable to distinguish causation from correlation More specifically, the current breed of machine learning is correlation engine, the only strength these networks have is finding correlations in the absence of context or explanation.
manfredo 7y ago
> The problem is that these systems are fundamentally unable to distinguish causation from correlation. Which is admittedly a hard prob even for humans, but at least we have some capacity to tease these out. I'm not sure why causation vs. correlation is relevant here. When, say, someone is up for parole the judge will review their past criminal history, conduct in prison, whether or not they will have a support structure when they are released, etc. None of these factors are causal. A judge cannot point to a past crime, or to conduct in prison and say "this factor will cause you to reoffend". No, the decision is made based on factors that are correlated with higher rates of recidivism.
- iknowalot 7y ago
  The USA has spent 4+ centuries kicking certain communities down the Maslow Heirarchy, this was done on purpose through laws introducing redlining, Jim Crow, no access to the GI Bill, slavery etc...I'd like a world where we could judge people fairly on the same standard, but we purposely created economic underclasses and that comes with a certain amount of desperation that leads to crime. White Americans = 70% of pop. , $100 trillion in wealth. African Americans = 14% of the pop, $2.9 trillion in wealth African Americans in particular owned almost 10-12% of the land in this country (true wealth) and were promised more from the government in reparations (40 acres) not long ago, but discriminatory policies stripped that land away from them over 100 years. Being in the USA for 150-200 years results in atleast 500k-1million $ in wealth purely due to land and home value appreciation. The average black person has about ~500$ in wealth. This isn't a fluke, this was designed... This is a country that criminalizes being poor more and more in many ways, so we can fall into the trap of revictimizing the underclass we created, this time using algos, if we are not careful.
  - manfredo 7y ago
    Yes, African Americans are disadvantaged as compared to whites. But how is that relevant to me previous comment? When a judge is evaluating whether or not to grant parole, is he or she looking for a causal factor that will directly cause the convict to re-offend or is the judge evaluating the convict's situation with factors that are correlated with re-offending?

whatshisface 7y ago

Cynically, does a bank care why zipcode is correlated with failure to repay loans? Forcing the bank to act as if the probability distributions are different from how they really are sounds like a very awkward way to redistribute wealth. Maybe the right answer would be reparations for whatever society did to everyone in those communities and then total freedom of association for banks and others to give loans as they see fit. Another option would be to give a bad credit subsidy to people in the cases where their low estimated trustworthiness is judged to be due to someone else's error. For example if a factory gives me lead poisoning, my interest rates go up because people with high blood lead content are less likely to keep good credit, but the factory has to pay the difference because they were liable. This reminds me of the argument for the UBI. Instead of having thousands of tiny chairty programs sprinkled all over society, why not let the economy make itself as efficient as possible and then hand out the charity in units of dollars?

empath75 7y ago
Redlining: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redlining https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redlining
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]

hr5eaqhera 7y ago

> unable to distinguish causation from correlation More specifically, the current breed of machine learning is correlation engine, the only strength these networks have is finding correlations in the absence of context or explanation.

manfredo 7y ago

> The problem is that these systems are fundamentally unable to distinguish causation from correlation. Which is admittedly a hard prob even for humans, but at least we have some capacity to tease these out. I'm not sure why causation vs. correlation is relevant here. When, say, someone is up for parole the judge will review their past criminal history, conduct in prison, whether or not they will have a support structure when they are released, etc. None of these factors are causal. A judge cannot point to a past crime, or to conduct in prison and say "this factor will cause you to reoffend". No, the decision is made based on factors that are correlated with higher rates of recidivism.

iknowalot 7y ago
The USA has spent 4+ centuries kicking certain communities down the Maslow Heirarchy, this was done on purpose through laws introducing redlining, Jim Crow, no access to the GI Bill, slavery etc...I'd like a world where we could judge people fairly on the same standard, but we purposely created economic underclasses and that comes with a certain amount of desperation that leads to crime. White Americans = 70% of pop. , $100 trillion in wealth. African Americans = 14% of the pop, $2.9 trillion in wealth African Americans in particular owned almost 10-12% of the land in this country (true wealth) and were promised more from the government in reparations (40 acres) not long ago, but discriminatory policies stripped that land away from them over 100 years. Being in the USA for 150-200 years results in atleast 500k-1million $ in wealth purely due to land and home value appreciation. The average black person has about ~500$ in wealth. This isn't a fluke, this was designed... This is a country that criminalizes being poor more and more in many ways, so we can fall into the trap of revictimizing the underclass we created, this time using algos, if we are not careful.
- manfredo 7y ago
  Yes, African Americans are disadvantaged as compared to whites. But how is that relevant to me previous comment? When a judge is evaluating whether or not to grant parole, is he or she looking for a causal factor that will directly cause the convict to re-offend or is the judge evaluating the convict's situation with factors that are correlated with re-offending?