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"11. A global population strategy to enable a smooth descent to the two to three billion that could live comfortably indefinitely within the biophysical means o

"11. A global population strategy to enable a smooth descent to the two to three billion that could live comfortably indefinitely within the biophysical means of nature." Part 2: https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/11/12/Climate-Crisis-Realist-Memo/ https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/11/12/Climate-Crisis-Realis... This is highly disturbing. With the 11,000 scientist warning the other day they proposed something similar. I find it very worrying. Who will decide who lives? Or who has kids and a family? This will not end well...

yters 7y ago
I propose all recommending population reduction lead by example starting with themselves.
- journalctl 7y ago
  Condoms are cheaper than bullets.
  - Invictus0 7y ago
    Ignoring the ridiculous notion of killing people to stop population growth, that isn't true at all, especially if you consider that it takes one bullet to kill someone and thousands of condoms to prevent the birth of a child.
    - dredmorbius 7y ago
      Bullets carry significant externalities. How many of today's regional conflicts can be traced back to mass atrocities? Birth control doesn't create survivors perpetuating rage based on past martyrs. Even if the immediate efficacy approaches your suggested value. In truth, it's almost certainly closer to 100s.
      - yters 7y ago
        Wars lead to even greater population reduction. However, once one baby sneaks past the birth control, then you have to start all over again with that new person to teach them to not create yet more babies. War and vengeance is a viral population reduction method.
        dredmorbius 7y ago
        Disease and famine are historically far more effective. In the 20th century, the Spanish Influenza Pandemic killed more people than WWI. And WWII. Combined.
        yters 7y ago
        Literally viral population reduction.
        dredmorbius 7y ago
        If you're interested in the topic, I strongly recommend Kyle Harper's The Fate of Rome, discussing co-evolution of urbanisation, extended trade and commerce networks, and epidemic disease.
        yters 7y ago
        Romans did it to themselves by refusing to procreate, just like we in the west are doing.
toxik 7y ago
Probably just family planning. Nobody needs to die to save the earth, well, not execution at least
- cyrksoft 7y ago
  Family planning how? Who will decide who can have children and who can't? Governments? A global one child policy? That's insane
  - jejei93ndmd 7y ago
    Is it insane to alter social norms to save the species as a whole or let people drive it off the cliff by treating a uterus like a clown car? We’re so far away from having to debate this as realistic thing politically right now, the discourse is an exercise in fear mongering. Plenty to be freaked out about before next month is passed.
    - cyrksoft 7y ago
      Having kids is not a social norm (at least not in every case). Who are you or any politician to decide how many kids can a couple have? Even if it only is fear mongering, I bet you this will be a political discussion in some years.
      - flukus 7y ago
        > Who are you or any politician to decide how many kids can a couple have? I'm someone who subsidizes families having children, my taxes are paying for their healthcare, their schools, their childcare, etc. And while I'm happy to do that because maintaining society is important I'm not happy to do it for someone pumping out 15 kids. > I bet you this will be a political discussion in some years. I bet you it won't, reproduction rates have plummeted in developed nations.
        cyrksoft 7y ago
        How many 15 kids family are there out there? Besides, they also pay their tax share...
XorNot 7y ago
If the human population were limited to one-child per couple for a few decades, then everyone can have a family, and the population still declines. This is happening naturally in a lot of countries already: > According to projections of the population with the current fertility rate, over 65s will account for 40% of the population by 2060,[10][11] and the total population will fall by a third from 128 million in 2010 to 87 million in 2060 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Japan#Effects https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Japan#Effects
- cyrksoft 7y ago
  I know population will decline, but not as a policy. If it happens naturally then it's perfectly ok. The fact that politicians get to decide how many kids or even if you can have kids is a scary thought.
  - XorNot 7y ago
    People have the worst imagination. Simply removing a tax break at child number 2 would have a substantial impact.
    - cyrksoft 7y ago
      So now you propose paying for having kids? So only rich or afluent people will have kids. Poor people not only will keep having kids but will also remain poor as they now have to pay? Do you even think before you propose policies?
      - dang 7y ago
        Whoa, personal attacks will get you banned here, so please don't comment like that! If you'd please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and use HN as intended, we'd appreciate it.
  - 0xffff2 7y ago
    Why? How is it different from any other aspect of government regulation? In the US at least, the government already has its finger on the scale by giving tax breaks based on number of children.
jejei93ndmd 7y ago
Humanity will end some day. FYI before we were born we didn’t have much say in the shape of the world and then were shaped to agree with it. That’s how it works. If such a social policy does come into effect we’ll be long dead and have no say. Not so much a thing to worry about. Our concern on Earth is our own behavior, and I don’t mean to come off as pious, but we have no control over 50 years from except by changing our behavior now. Write ups like this, proposing entirely untenable political positions are worth as much East German currency, and unlike East German currency, broadly distributed making any individual one repetitive. Life is the leading cause of death. It ends badly for all us :shrug:
Franciscouzo 7y ago
Providing free birth control to ALL people on earth would be a good start.
nostrademons 7y ago
So far the best possible situation is playing out: people are voluntarily choosing not to have kids (or not to have as many kids), as they respond to economic incentives. Kids are expensive and a huge time suck, and with the continued development of very fulfilling hobbies and pastimes for urban professionals without kids, many people are independently making the conclusion that it's not worth it. I don't have very high hopes for us getting out of this demographic crunch without a world war, but so far Millenials are not letting us down, though they aren't exactly happy about it. Let's hope that we can remain on the "mildly disgruntled" side rather than the "shooting war".

yters 7y ago

I propose all recommending population reduction lead by example starting with themselves.

journalctl 7y ago
Condoms are cheaper than bullets.
- Invictus0 7y ago
  Ignoring the ridiculous notion of killing people to stop population growth, that isn't true at all, especially if you consider that it takes one bullet to kill someone and thousands of condoms to prevent the birth of a child.
  - dredmorbius 7y ago
    Bullets carry significant externalities. How many of today's regional conflicts can be traced back to mass atrocities? Birth control doesn't create survivors perpetuating rage based on past martyrs. Even if the immediate efficacy approaches your suggested value. In truth, it's almost certainly closer to 100s.
    - yters 7y ago
      Wars lead to even greater population reduction. However, once one baby sneaks past the birth control, then you have to start all over again with that new person to teach them to not create yet more babies. War and vengeance is a viral population reduction method.
      - dredmorbius 7y ago
        Disease and famine are historically far more effective. In the 20th century, the Spanish Influenza Pandemic killed more people than WWI. And WWII. Combined.
        yters 7y ago
        Literally viral population reduction.
        dredmorbius 7y ago
        If you're interested in the topic, I strongly recommend Kyle Harper's The Fate of Rome, discussing co-evolution of urbanisation, extended trade and commerce networks, and epidemic disease.
        yters 7y ago
        Romans did it to themselves by refusing to procreate, just like we in the west are doing.

toxik 7y ago

Probably just family planning. Nobody needs to die to save the earth, well, not execution at least

cyrksoft 7y ago
Family planning how? Who will decide who can have children and who can't? Governments? A global one child policy? That's insane
- jejei93ndmd 7y ago
  Is it insane to alter social norms to save the species as a whole or let people drive it off the cliff by treating a uterus like a clown car? We’re so far away from having to debate this as realistic thing politically right now, the discourse is an exercise in fear mongering. Plenty to be freaked out about before next month is passed.
  - cyrksoft 7y ago
    Having kids is not a social norm (at least not in every case). Who are you or any politician to decide how many kids can a couple have? Even if it only is fear mongering, I bet you this will be a political discussion in some years.
    - flukus 7y ago
      > Who are you or any politician to decide how many kids can a couple have? I'm someone who subsidizes families having children, my taxes are paying for their healthcare, their schools, their childcare, etc. And while I'm happy to do that because maintaining society is important I'm not happy to do it for someone pumping out 15 kids. > I bet you this will be a political discussion in some years. I bet you it won't, reproduction rates have plummeted in developed nations.
      - cyrksoft 7y ago
        How many 15 kids family are there out there? Besides, they also pay their tax share...

XorNot 7y ago

If the human population were limited to one-child per couple for a few decades, then everyone can have a family, and the population still declines. This is happening naturally in a lot of countries already: > According to projections of the population with the current fertility rate, over 65s will account for 40% of the population by 2060,[10][11] and the total population will fall by a third from 128 million in 2010 to 87 million in 2060 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Japan#Effects https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Japan#Effects

cyrksoft 7y ago
I know population will decline, but not as a policy. If it happens naturally then it's perfectly ok. The fact that politicians get to decide how many kids or even if you can have kids is a scary thought.
- XorNot 7y ago
  People have the worst imagination. Simply removing a tax break at child number 2 would have a substantial impact.
  - cyrksoft 7y ago
    So now you propose paying for having kids? So only rich or afluent people will have kids. Poor people not only will keep having kids but will also remain poor as they now have to pay? Do you even think before you propose policies?
    - dang 7y ago
      Whoa, personal attacks will get you banned here, so please don't comment like that! If you'd please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and use HN as intended, we'd appreciate it.
- 0xffff2 7y ago
  Why? How is it different from any other aspect of government regulation? In the US at least, the government already has its finger on the scale by giving tax breaks based on number of children.

jejei93ndmd 7y ago

Humanity will end some day. FYI before we were born we didn’t have much say in the shape of the world and then were shaped to agree with it. That’s how it works. If such a social policy does come into effect we’ll be long dead and have no say. Not so much a thing to worry about. Our concern on Earth is our own behavior, and I don’t mean to come off as pious, but we have no control over 50 years from except by changing our behavior now. Write ups like this, proposing entirely untenable political positions are worth as much East German currency, and unlike East German currency, broadly distributed making any individual one repetitive. Life is the leading cause of death. It ends badly for all us :shrug:

Franciscouzo 7y ago

Providing free birth control to ALL people on earth would be a good start.

nostrademons 7y ago

So far the best possible situation is playing out: people are voluntarily choosing not to have kids (or not to have as many kids), as they respond to economic incentives. Kids are expensive and a huge time suck, and with the continued development of very fulfilling hobbies and pastimes for urban professionals without kids, many people are independently making the conclusion that it's not worth it. I don't have very high hopes for us getting out of this demographic crunch without a world war, but so far Millenials are not letting us down, though they aren't exactly happy about it. Let's hope that we can remain on the "mildly disgruntled" side rather than the "shooting war".