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The math behind "sensible bet" relies on the period of time between winnings being shorter than your lifetime. Unless you're buying a huge number of tickets, ev
by brlewis 7y ago
The math behind "sensible bet" relies on the period of time between winnings being shorter than your lifetime. Unless you're buying a huge number of tickets, even the big jackpots aren't worth playing, except just for fun.
Just for fun, you could take the money you'd spend on a lottery ticket and hand it to the next person you see, just to see how they react.
- vkou 7y agoAh, but even if the net EV is negative, it still makes sense to part with a bit of money that you won't care about, for a miniscule chance of receiving a life-changing amount of money. If you're not just barely scraping together, dropping $25 on a negative EV lottery is not going to make one whit of difference to your finances. But it might change your life. Dropping $25,000 on a positive EV lottery, on the other hand, is an incredibly dumb move. Since most poor people will, in fact, miss that $25, the lottery is a really bad idea for them. Yet, they play it a lot more than the middle class do...
- NauticalStu 7y agoYeah I don't play the lottery, but I could justify buying a single lottery ticket despite understanding how horrific the odds are. Since you'll almost certainly lose, I think the true value is in the fantasy of what you would do with a staggering amount of money. You could do this without buying a ticket, of course, but it feels more real when you have some skin in the game. Mathematically, your odds are still effectively zero, but mentally there's a big difference between effectively zero and actual zero. Thinking of other consumables in that general price range that provide a short, quick fix of enjoyment (cup of coffee, snack, etc.), $1 for a slightly more vivid dream isn't so crazy to me. Having said all this, I highly doubt it's the mentality of most lottery players.