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The transition is happening, but we’re nowhere near on pace for negative carbon by 2050. Here in the US, most of our emissions reduction has been switching from
by javagram 7y ago
The transition is happening, but we’re nowhere near on pace for negative carbon by 2050. Here in the US, most of our emissions reduction has been switching from coal to gas, while energy consumption continues to rise and politicians block offshore wind farms for aesthetic reasons (e.g. Cape wind in MA).
Once the coal->gas transition completes, the easy gains on emissions reduction are gone - now it’s cheap, already built gas plants with cheap fracked gas that need to be out competed by renewables + as yet to be invented cost-effective storage technologies.
GND policies don’t add up as far as I can tell, in fact they are probably counter productive since they promise voters that they can have carbon friendly policies and everything else they want too.
I’d be happy to see a tax on carbon and more subsidies for green cars and so on (right now, a gas car is still a better deal despite the tax subsidy on electric, especially with our low US gas prices). But I’m skeptical that we’re anywhere near on track to convincing voters to get behind it.
[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/11/10/the-surprising-energy-math-behind-us-climate-policy-failure/#31af9da734b7 https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/11/10/the-surp...
- NeedMoreTea 7y agoNow there I agree, but that appears down to the unique success anti-science lobbying is having in the US right now. The US has long had a political structure that is not amenable to regulation -- so it comes particularly slowly, and often later than elsewhere. Forbes piece is correct that much coal has been replaced by gas, but it is not (necessarily) as bad as it tries to make out. That mirrors the UK experience 10 or so years ago, when we had a dash for gas. Already those gas plants are becoming uneconomic -- so much for their expected 50+ year life. We've already had a couple of closures, and one of the gas generators are busy trying to pivot to renewables. This under a Conservative government that has outlawed cheaper onshore wind and backed fracking, two decisions even their own membership disagree with. So it may well be gas starts dropping out of US generation in a decade, not ideal, but potentially OK on course for 2050 neutrality. US gas prices and love of the car may prove more intractable, but I haven't quite lost hope yet.