4 ms·

I saw a demonstration of the Kinect at CES and I was impressed with the technology. The Kinect is a big win for Microsoft. Not only is it a commercial success,

by mjfern 16y ago

I saw a demonstration of the Kinect at CES and I was impressed with the technology. The Kinect is a big win for Microsoft. Not only is it a commercial success, but it's also the first Microsoft product in quite some time that has captured the imagination of consumers. Now Microsoft needs to leverage the success of the Kinect to further expand beyond the PC. An obvious direction is to use the Kinect to gain additional market share with the Xbox, since the Kinect is currently designed as a UI for this device. But I think focusing exclusively on the Xbox is a mistake. The Xbox (and other consoles and set-top boxes) may soon get enveloped and displaced by other technologies, particularly connected TVs. I suggest that Microsoft leverage the Kinect as an element in a coherent connected TV strategy. Connected TVs are just emerging, and there is still time to match the developments of Google, Apple, and others in this space. To enter the connected TV market, Microsoft needs to quickly develop a connected TV OS, forge relationships with app developers, and acquire or partner with content providers (e.g., Netflix, OnLive.com). This is all feasible given Microsoft's significant software expertise and its existing relationships (e.g., with Netflix, game developers, etc). Microsoft has been struggling to gain leadership in markets outside the PC. For instance, it's behind in smartphones, tablets, and portable media players. The Kinect could give Microsoft the edge to dominate the emerging connected TV market. The technology strikes me as an excellent UI for the 10-foot viewing experience, especially for interactive media. It can then leverage success in this market to gain further ground in related connected device markets. I think there is a significant opportunity here. Thoughts?

Qz 16y ago
I'm not convinced about 'connected TVs' but I agree that thinking of it as an Xbox peripheral is definitely not the best plan.
- mjfern 16y ago
  I'm curious. What are your concerns about connected TVs?
  - pmjordan 16y ago
    Personally, I don't think the TV makers will be smart enough for a while to open their platforms to software developers in a way that is attractive enough for developers to really embrace it. It'll be to the Android Market what the Android Market is to the iOS App Store. Android Market seems to be just about good enough, whereas the App Store is a roaring success. Anything worse than the Android Market is probably going to be a failure. And: Software? Yes, software. It's playing an increasingly large role in all consumer electronics. When I look at the average TV's kafkaesque OSD menus I have very little faith that they won't fuck up something more complicated. Even if Android develops a big screen offshoot, most TV makers will fuck up the implementation, if the majority of Android phones and tablets is anything to go by. The mindset of the hardware makers still is such that the software is an afterthought. It's increasingly becoming the make or break component. The current lot of "smart" TVs certainly reflects that attitude - they can't even get web browsing right on a most basic level. This gives Apple, Boxee, etc. a chance to establish themselves in that market with boxes that are separate from the TV itself. Game consoles are in that category as well, except they're expensive and (still) have a "gamer" stigma associated with them. I understand the Xbox's non-game UI is actually pretty good, so Microsoft could probably release a cheap Xbox without the expensive CPU, GPU and DVD drive, which does everything but play (AAA) games. Extend XBLA to non-game apps. And for god's sake don't call it Xbox, that will transfer the stigma. Btw, Sony will probably miss this opportunity because their TV division is separate from the PlayStation one. And Nintendo, well, no idea. They don't really seem to get the Internet. But they've surprised us before. (they have the Opera browser on the Wii!)
    - Splines 16y ago
      > And Nintendo, well, no idea. They don't really seem to get the Internet. But they've surprised us before. (they have the Opera browser on the Wii!) Nintendo is certainly apart from the rest of the herd. I feel like they are positioning themselves as a "social" gaming company. I don't mean "social" as in Facebook, but more like those experiences people had playing NES games with their friends next to them on the couch. Their platform encourages multiplayer games to be played on the same screen. The N64 was the first console to have four controller ports (the SNES had an expander peripheral as well). Their Pokemon games promote sharing and playing with friends over ad-hoc wifi. They have eschewed standard support for a headset, making multiplayer-online games (SSMB:M and Mario Kart comes to mind) like playing against more challenging AI. Super Mario Galaxy 1/2 are great games, and are made even greater by allowing two people on the same couch to work together. I'm certain that the company understands the importance of the internet (the Wii store is nothing to write home about, but it's certainly good enough). I think that they've decided that internet gaming is not a place that they want to be (for better or worse).
regularfry 16y ago
They won't be able to do any of this, or exploit any of the frankly enormous potential of the device, unless they can pry the Kinect out of the clutches of the Entertainment division. They only care about selling Xboxes.
- pedalpete 16y ago
  The entertainment division operates WP7 and consumer software (as stated in the article), so what makes you think this division only cares about selling XBox? Microsoft (from my understanding) doesn't have exclusive rights to the Kinect tech, just for it's use in certain applications, but with the relationship that Microsoft has PrimeSense (the company which created much of the kinect technology), I'm sure groups outside of just the Entertainment division are looking at ways to leverage the tech and relationship. The brilliant hacking that is going on with kinect show just how valuable this tech can be in different uses. I'm sure microsoft will be leveraging much of this for ideas. Hopefully they'll be getting into the acquisition game and picking up some of these hackers to continue to create great experiences with kinect on platforms other than xbox.
  - regularfry 16y ago
    > The entertainment division operates WP7 and consumer software (as stated in the article), so what makes you think this division only cares about selling XBox? Chatting to a 'Softie who was complaining about this specific problem. Specifically that they're only interested in Kinect applications which will sell Xboxes, because that's how the ownership is organised. I didn't query too much further, it all sounded too painful...
theBobMcCormick 16y ago
It's easy to say that Microsoft needs to "leverage" the connect in a "coherent connected TV strategy", but what does that actually mean when you get down to it? I've got a connect, I like it a lot, but I'm completely at a loss for how it would be useful while watching TV. And don't say something about replacing the TV remote with gestures. That's just stupid. Nobody wants the volume on their TV to suddenly shoot up just because they accidentally flung their hand in the wrong direction. If the Kinect gets a lot better and more accurate it could be a good interface for controller a TV connected browser or some kind of apps displayed on a TV screen. But right now navigating game menus with the Kinect is rather frustratingly wonky.

by mjfern 16y ago

Qz 16y ago

I'm not convinced about 'connected TVs' but I agree that thinking of it as an Xbox peripheral is definitely not the best plan.

mjfern 16y ago
I'm curious. What are your concerns about connected TVs?
- pmjordan 16y ago
  Personally, I don't think the TV makers will be smart enough for a while to open their platforms to software developers in a way that is attractive enough for developers to really embrace it. It'll be to the Android Market what the Android Market is to the iOS App Store. Android Market seems to be just about good enough, whereas the App Store is a roaring success. Anything worse than the Android Market is probably going to be a failure. And: Software? Yes, software. It's playing an increasingly large role in all consumer electronics. When I look at the average TV's kafkaesque OSD menus I have very little faith that they won't fuck up something more complicated. Even if Android develops a big screen offshoot, most TV makers will fuck up the implementation, if the majority of Android phones and tablets is anything to go by. The mindset of the hardware makers still is such that the software is an afterthought. It's increasingly becoming the make or break component. The current lot of "smart" TVs certainly reflects that attitude - they can't even get web browsing right on a most basic level. This gives Apple, Boxee, etc. a chance to establish themselves in that market with boxes that are separate from the TV itself. Game consoles are in that category as well, except they're expensive and (still) have a "gamer" stigma associated with them. I understand the Xbox's non-game UI is actually pretty good, so Microsoft could probably release a cheap Xbox without the expensive CPU, GPU and DVD drive, which does everything but play (AAA) games. Extend XBLA to non-game apps. And for god's sake don't call it Xbox, that will transfer the stigma. Btw, Sony will probably miss this opportunity because their TV division is separate from the PlayStation one. And Nintendo, well, no idea. They don't really seem to get the Internet. But they've surprised us before. (they have the Opera browser on the Wii!)
  - Splines 16y ago
    > And Nintendo, well, no idea. They don't really seem to get the Internet. But they've surprised us before. (they have the Opera browser on the Wii!) Nintendo is certainly apart from the rest of the herd. I feel like they are positioning themselves as a "social" gaming company. I don't mean "social" as in Facebook, but more like those experiences people had playing NES games with their friends next to them on the couch. Their platform encourages multiplayer games to be played on the same screen. The N64 was the first console to have four controller ports (the SNES had an expander peripheral as well). Their Pokemon games promote sharing and playing with friends over ad-hoc wifi. They have eschewed standard support for a headset, making multiplayer-online games (SSMB:M and Mario Kart comes to mind) like playing against more challenging AI. Super Mario Galaxy 1/2 are great games, and are made even greater by allowing two people on the same couch to work together. I'm certain that the company understands the importance of the internet (the Wii store is nothing to write home about, but it's certainly good enough). I think that they've decided that internet gaming is not a place that they want to be (for better or worse).

regularfry 16y ago

They won't be able to do any of this, or exploit any of the frankly enormous potential of the device, unless they can pry the Kinect out of the clutches of the Entertainment division. They only care about selling Xboxes.

pedalpete 16y ago
The entertainment division operates WP7 and consumer software (as stated in the article), so what makes you think this division only cares about selling XBox? Microsoft (from my understanding) doesn't have exclusive rights to the Kinect tech, just for it's use in certain applications, but with the relationship that Microsoft has PrimeSense (the company which created much of the kinect technology), I'm sure groups outside of just the Entertainment division are looking at ways to leverage the tech and relationship. The brilliant hacking that is going on with kinect show just how valuable this tech can be in different uses. I'm sure microsoft will be leveraging much of this for ideas. Hopefully they'll be getting into the acquisition game and picking up some of these hackers to continue to create great experiences with kinect on platforms other than xbox.
- regularfry 16y ago
  > The entertainment division operates WP7 and consumer software (as stated in the article), so what makes you think this division only cares about selling XBox? Chatting to a 'Softie who was complaining about this specific problem. Specifically that they're only interested in Kinect applications which will sell Xboxes, because that's how the ownership is organised. I didn't query too much further, it all sounded too painful...

theBobMcCormick 16y ago

It's easy to say that Microsoft needs to "leverage" the connect in a "coherent connected TV strategy", but what does that actually mean when you get down to it? I've got a connect, I like it a lot, but I'm completely at a loss for how it would be useful while watching TV. And don't say something about replacing the TV remote with gestures. That's just stupid. Nobody wants the volume on their TV to suddenly shoot up just because they accidentally flung their hand in the wrong direction. If the Kinect gets a lot better and more accurate it could be a good interface for controller a TV connected browser or some kind of apps displayed on a TV screen. But right now navigating game menus with the Kinect is rather frustratingly wonky.