4 ms·

I suspect that the problem will end up being something quite 'simple.' Our time didn't have the horsepower nor know how to accurately compute feedback loops in

I suspect that the problem will end up being something quite 'simple.' Our time didn't have the horsepower nor know how to accurately compute feedback loops in our environment. We didn't understand the numerous and unforeseeable tipping points that we tipped. We didn't understand the dance of nature and how disparate events tied into the pattern of our actions. The deliberations, however, are over and the verdict is in. We have done fucked up. There's no point in lamenting our failure. We've made the mess and now we need to fix it. The only real question facing us is how. Whether it's carbon sinks in the form of olivine and 20 million trees, new methods to suck carbon out of the air, or some desperate act of geoengineering. Humanity needs to come to grips with the situation and act quickly and decisively. Like we did with nuclear weapons and space races. An Earth Race (so that we don't regress), if you will.

kiba 7y ago
What does "quickly and decisively" mean in term of timeframe?
- dredmorbius 7y ago
  The IPCC's 2014 AR5 WG3 report is the latest to provide a detailed mitigations response. That would be the concensus view. There are a wide range of others. I've only just now looked it up, so while I can't answer your question directly, it's all but certainly the most comrepensive concensus answer you'll find. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/ https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/ For the Paris accords: net negative emissions by 2050, now 30 years away. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#/media/File%3AMitigation_pathways.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#/media/File%3AM...
  - javagram 7y ago
    When people riot in the streets and demand their luxuries back, what will you do to stop it? Authoritarian repression? Massacres? Yellow vest protests in France were caused by a modest increase in fuel taxes. Serious belt-tightening to stop global warming is going to be far worse in most countries - heck, France already generates most of their energy from nuclear and renewables so they are way ahead of the US and others.
    - Gibbon1 7y ago
      > Yellow vest protests in France were caused by a modest increase in fuel taxes. Ans: Stop with the neoliberal rubber hose type solutions to problems.
    - NeedMoreTea 7y ago
      Meanwhile in the UK, nearly half of Conservative voters and a majority of the country think we should be aiming to decarbonise far faster[1]. Namely by 2030 and not kicked off into the long grass of 2050 as the government committed to. Committed to purely because they don't have to _do_ anything. Apparently even their voters aren't properly signed up to the denial hymn sheet. Yellow vest protests were far more about inequality than a modest increase in fuel taxes. If government makes an equitable policy that spares the poorest in society the disproportionate impact that would naturally fall on them, there need be no riots - especially if they had a warm, well insulated house for the first time. The middle classes don't, generally speaking, riot. So what luxuries are you expecting to be taken? Decarbonising doesn't mean deindustrialising. It means winding back some of the excesses of capitalism and consumerism. Done properly we should expect better made, longer lasting but sustainable products. Which I suppose should have the multinationals rioting if we take away planned obsolescence... :) [1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/07/majority-of-uk-public-back-2030-zero-carbon-target-poll https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/07/majority...
      - javagram 7y ago
        In terms of luxuries being taken away, I’d point to electricity and transportation as the #1. For those calling for immediate decarbonization, that would mean shutting down all our coal, gas, and oil burning power plants and scrapping our gas burning cars. Electric heating costs more than gas heating, electric cars cost more than gas cars, and so on. All of these costs hit ordinary people directly in the pocketbook. Economists estimate a carbon tax high enough to force fossil fuel plants offline in a couple decades would need to be quite high. Meanwhile, in democratic societies like the USA it’s very difficult to even raise the gas tax a few cents to fund needed repairs to bridges and other infrastructure. To get people out of their SUV’s and into Teslas, for instance, you’d need to put multi-dollar taxes on gas to make it make sense (e.g. Norway where Tesla is doing well because they put a 100% tax on normal gas cars). Democratic elections often result in the rejection of such taxes because voters value their immediate standard of living over that of future decades (e.g. WA state initiatives for carbon taxes, which were soundly rejected at the ballot box in 2016 and 2018). And to do all this without affecting the standard of living of the poor and middle classes, and without slowing down the growth of developing countries and China - I think it’s a bit of a dream. There’s a reason market-based societies selected to use fossil fuel technology and it’s because it’s cheaper than other energy generation tech. Transitioning off of it is now a massive capital investment and will hurt. You say the yellow vest protest were about inequality - but the result of them was that the fuel tax was put on hold and the speed limit was kept high.
- lancewiggs 7y ago
  Now. Work on solutions now. There are lots of them and we should all be doing our part.
dredmorbius 7y ago
Along those lines, but more than that: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21511026 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21511026

kiba 7y ago

What does "quickly and decisively" mean in term of timeframe?

dredmorbius 7y ago
The IPCC's 2014 AR5 WG3 report is the latest to provide a detailed mitigations response. That would be the concensus view. There are a wide range of others. I've only just now looked it up, so while I can't answer your question directly, it's all but certainly the most comrepensive concensus answer you'll find. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/ https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/ For the Paris accords: net negative emissions by 2050, now 30 years away. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#/media/File%3AMitigation_pathways.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#/media/File%3AM...
- javagram 7y ago
  When people riot in the streets and demand their luxuries back, what will you do to stop it? Authoritarian repression? Massacres? Yellow vest protests in France were caused by a modest increase in fuel taxes. Serious belt-tightening to stop global warming is going to be far worse in most countries - heck, France already generates most of their energy from nuclear and renewables so they are way ahead of the US and others.
  - Gibbon1 7y ago
    > Yellow vest protests in France were caused by a modest increase in fuel taxes. Ans: Stop with the neoliberal rubber hose type solutions to problems.
  - NeedMoreTea 7y ago
    Meanwhile in the UK, nearly half of Conservative voters and a majority of the country think we should be aiming to decarbonise far faster[1]. Namely by 2030 and not kicked off into the long grass of 2050 as the government committed to. Committed to purely because they don't have to _do_ anything. Apparently even their voters aren't properly signed up to the denial hymn sheet. Yellow vest protests were far more about inequality than a modest increase in fuel taxes. If government makes an equitable policy that spares the poorest in society the disproportionate impact that would naturally fall on them, there need be no riots - especially if they had a warm, well insulated house for the first time. The middle classes don't, generally speaking, riot. So what luxuries are you expecting to be taken? Decarbonising doesn't mean deindustrialising. It means winding back some of the excesses of capitalism and consumerism. Done properly we should expect better made, longer lasting but sustainable products. Which I suppose should have the multinationals rioting if we take away planned obsolescence... :) [1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/07/majority-of-uk-public-back-2030-zero-carbon-target-poll https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/07/majority...
    - javagram 7y ago
      In terms of luxuries being taken away, I’d point to electricity and transportation as the #1. For those calling for immediate decarbonization, that would mean shutting down all our coal, gas, and oil burning power plants and scrapping our gas burning cars. Electric heating costs more than gas heating, electric cars cost more than gas cars, and so on. All of these costs hit ordinary people directly in the pocketbook. Economists estimate a carbon tax high enough to force fossil fuel plants offline in a couple decades would need to be quite high. Meanwhile, in democratic societies like the USA it’s very difficult to even raise the gas tax a few cents to fund needed repairs to bridges and other infrastructure. To get people out of their SUV’s and into Teslas, for instance, you’d need to put multi-dollar taxes on gas to make it make sense (e.g. Norway where Tesla is doing well because they put a 100% tax on normal gas cars). Democratic elections often result in the rejection of such taxes because voters value their immediate standard of living over that of future decades (e.g. WA state initiatives for carbon taxes, which were soundly rejected at the ballot box in 2016 and 2018). And to do all this without affecting the standard of living of the poor and middle classes, and without slowing down the growth of developing countries and China - I think it’s a bit of a dream. There’s a reason market-based societies selected to use fossil fuel technology and it’s because it’s cheaper than other energy generation tech. Transitioning off of it is now a massive capital investment and will hurt. You say the yellow vest protest were about inequality - but the result of them was that the fuel tax was put on hold and the speed limit was kept high.
lancewiggs 7y ago
Now. Work on solutions now. There are lots of them and we should all be doing our part.

dredmorbius 7y ago

Along those lines, but more than that: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21511026 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21511026