5 ms·

Ask HN: Which industry will most likely produce the first trillionaire?

17 points by markovian 7y ago

sarcasmatwork 7y ago
Jeff Bezos was right around the corner in 2017 per this article: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/27/richest-man-alive-jeff-bezos-could-become-the-first-trillionaire.html https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/27/richest-man-alive-jeff-bezos...
- markovian 7y ago
  He is certainly well positioned, but Amazon is already 23 years old, industrial cycles tend to shorten and he himself anticipated the death of his own company.
- sp332 7y ago
  Yes but he was divorced this year. https://www.cnet.com/news/amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-140b-divorce-what-you-need-to-know/ https://www.cnet.com/news/amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-140b-divorce... And cashing out a billion dollars a year (over one percent of his net worth at the peak) to spend on rocket ships has got to put a dent in his earnings growth.
astrodev 7y ago
Sex robots. Disrupting the power of women in the sexual marketplace is bound to yield unprecedented profits.
- dyingkneepad 7y ago
  Only when such robots pass the Turing test.
mdorazio 7y ago
Honestly, probably something finance/investing-related. It's one of the only industries where profits can be pretty much completely divorced from the value actually created for customers, so there's basically unlimited upside. Everything else ends up somewhat limited by GDPs, population, or anti-trust regulations. If someone figured out a way to accurately predict market trends in a positive-ROI scenario, they could become a trillionaire without ever having to do all the pesky parts of actually creating a sustainable business.
- markovian 7y ago
  Seems relevant. Maybe some kind of global financial technology company such as Ant Financial.
saluki 7y ago
Asteroid Mining
- kleer001 7y ago
  IMHO this is the only correct answer. Some of the smallest asteroids clock in at Quintillions of dollars of value for their minerals. Even if only 1% of their value makes it dirtside that's a big ol' chunk of dosh.
  - MS90 7y ago
    I hope I can live long enough to see the effects of asteroid mining on the world and the economy. Palladium today is $1704.73 per ounce, but the price of palladium comes from the fact that it's extremely rare on Earth. But what if someone comes back from an asteroid with an amount of palladium that suddenly triples the worldwide supply? What will the effects be on the price point? I'm sure the costs of getting it back planetside will be factored in and slow down any inflation, but I am still curious. And what kind of things could we create, given a vastly increased supply of rare elements?
    - shostack 7y ago
      If you have a stranglehold on an exceptionally rare resource, I'm not sure it would be a wise business move to suddenly triple the world's supply.
      - MS90 7y ago
        Yeah, probably would be best to take the De Beers approach and bury 99% of it in storage.
markovian 7y ago
What about Healthcare ? Massive and still highly inefficient industry here.
WheelsAtLarge 7y ago
An industry involved in space will produce the first trillionaire. Simply because the money needed is so high that the return on investment will have to be just as high.
sidcool 7y ago
May be I am pessimistic but I don't see a trillionaire this century. In next century it will be a space mining company.
- idoh 7y ago
  We are already at a couple people being 100 billionaires. Inflation alone is enough to get us there by then.
aisafetyceo 7y ago
Artificial General Intelligence is creating the first group of multi-trillionaires Elon Musk & Andrej Karpathy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBklltKXtDE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBklltKXtDE Elon Musk & Max Hodak https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wqb7P3u5ujw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wqb7P3u5ujw Larry Page & Sergey brin Bill Gates https://youtu.be/s7O3oCWZgjE?t=225 https://youtu.be/s7O3oCWZgjE?t=225 Mark Zuckerberg & Abhinav Gupta https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-swj_rj3luE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-swj_rj3luE https://research.fb.com/publications/canonical-surface-mapping-via-geometric-cycle-consistency/ https://research.fb.com/publications/canonical-surface-mappi... Jason Kelly https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SaVsc65iu6E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SaVsc65iu6E John & Patrick Collison https://youtu.be/_4t12rS6_jo?t=700 https://youtu.be/_4t12rS6_jo?t=700 ------------------------ To make a trillion - sell ~33,333,333 cars at $30,000 - sell ~2,000,000,000 devices at $500 - sell ~10,000,000 virtual developers at $100,000 / year
muzani 7y ago
I'd say it's something that has to grow exponentially for a very long time. That rules something like finance out, which compounds very poorly, and hasn't produced trillionaires despite being around for centuries. I'd bet on education. Colleges and universities can be worth billions each. While the billion dollar ones are pretty good, the sub billion ones aren't and are getting competed with by several month courses. It seems something mostly neglected. Universities hire the smartest people, but teaching still uses the same old lecturing technique for decades, despite all this interactive technology. We've learned a lot about psychology and productivity. We have tried improving education technology, but it seems to just be a side gimmick. This can also be combined with upcoming new tech like AI to work better. It seems like something that compounds very well. If you can hack your brain to have, say, 90% comprehension, and comprehend harder things, you can also discover better education techniques and train others. Energy would be second. Oil has already produced trillionaire families, but it's too big to concentrate on one person. I'd imagine Bill Gates's shiny new nuclear plants could push him into trillionaire territory. Combined with the new electrical vehicle trend, people could be migrating from oil to electricity.
- markovian 7y ago
  I'm betting on Education too. Healthcare seems just as big and inefficient to me honestly.
  - muzani 7y ago
    Healthcare, yeah. It doesn't have the exponential effect, though, and it's a big market spread over many players. I'm sure it could be more efficient, but how much does that change? Then again, reading the Checklist Manifesto, where a checklist made such a difference, that makes me think that healthcare can be far improved.
- methusala8 7y ago
  Any particular thoughts on how to improve education with interactive technology? I am a teacher and hence curious on how it can be improved.
deepaksurti 7y ago
The industry that solves climate change without space colonisation will produce the first trillionaire.

17 points by markovian 7y ago

Jeff Bezos was right around the corner in 2017 per this article: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/27/richest-man-alive-jeff-bezos-could-become-the-first-trillionaire.html https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/27/richest-man-alive-jeff-bezos...

markovian 7y ago
He is certainly well positioned, but Amazon is already 23 years old, industrial cycles tend to shorten and he himself anticipated the death of his own company.
sp332 7y ago
Yes but he was divorced this year. https://www.cnet.com/news/amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-140b-divorce-what-you-need-to-know/ https://www.cnet.com/news/amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-140b-divorce... And cashing out a billion dollars a year (over one percent of his net worth at the peak) to spend on rocket ships has got to put a dent in his earnings growth.

astrodev 7y ago

Sex robots. Disrupting the power of women in the sexual marketplace is bound to yield unprecedented profits.

dyingkneepad 7y ago
Only when such robots pass the Turing test.

mdorazio 7y ago

Honestly, probably something finance/investing-related. It's one of the only industries where profits can be pretty much completely divorced from the value actually created for customers, so there's basically unlimited upside. Everything else ends up somewhat limited by GDPs, population, or anti-trust regulations. If someone figured out a way to accurately predict market trends in a positive-ROI scenario, they could become a trillionaire without ever having to do all the pesky parts of actually creating a sustainable business.

markovian 7y ago
Seems relevant. Maybe some kind of global financial technology company such as Ant Financial.

saluki 7y ago

Asteroid Mining

kleer001 7y ago
IMHO this is the only correct answer. Some of the smallest asteroids clock in at Quintillions of dollars of value for their minerals. Even if only 1% of their value makes it dirtside that's a big ol' chunk of dosh.
- MS90 7y ago
  I hope I can live long enough to see the effects of asteroid mining on the world and the economy. Palladium today is $1704.73 per ounce, but the price of palladium comes from the fact that it's extremely rare on Earth. But what if someone comes back from an asteroid with an amount of palladium that suddenly triples the worldwide supply? What will the effects be on the price point? I'm sure the costs of getting it back planetside will be factored in and slow down any inflation, but I am still curious. And what kind of things could we create, given a vastly increased supply of rare elements?
  - shostack 7y ago
    If you have a stranglehold on an exceptionally rare resource, I'm not sure it would be a wise business move to suddenly triple the world's supply.
    - MS90 7y ago
      Yeah, probably would be best to take the De Beers approach and bury 99% of it in storage.

markovian 7y ago

What about Healthcare ? Massive and still highly inefficient industry here.

WheelsAtLarge 7y ago

An industry involved in space will produce the first trillionaire. Simply because the money needed is so high that the return on investment will have to be just as high.

sidcool 7y ago

May be I am pessimistic but I don't see a trillionaire this century. In next century it will be a space mining company.

idoh 7y ago
We are already at a couple people being 100 billionaires. Inflation alone is enough to get us there by then.

aisafetyceo 7y ago

Artificial General Intelligence is creating the first group of multi-trillionaires Elon Musk & Andrej Karpathy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBklltKXtDE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBklltKXtDE Elon Musk & Max Hodak https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wqb7P3u5ujw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wqb7P3u5ujw Larry Page & Sergey brin Bill Gates https://youtu.be/s7O3oCWZgjE?t=225 https://youtu.be/s7O3oCWZgjE?t=225 Mark Zuckerberg & Abhinav Gupta https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-swj_rj3luE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-swj_rj3luE https://research.fb.com/publications/canonical-surface-mapping-via-geometric-cycle-consistency/ https://research.fb.com/publications/canonical-surface-mappi... Jason Kelly https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SaVsc65iu6E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SaVsc65iu6E John & Patrick Collison https://youtu.be/_4t12rS6_jo?t=700 https://youtu.be/_4t12rS6_jo?t=700 ------------------------ To make a trillion - sell ~33,333,333 cars at $30,000 - sell ~2,000,000,000 devices at $500 - sell ~10,000,000 virtual developers at $100,000 / year

muzani 7y ago

I'd say it's something that has to grow exponentially for a very long time. That rules something like finance out, which compounds very poorly, and hasn't produced trillionaires despite being around for centuries. I'd bet on education. Colleges and universities can be worth billions each. While the billion dollar ones are pretty good, the sub billion ones aren't and are getting competed with by several month courses. It seems something mostly neglected. Universities hire the smartest people, but teaching still uses the same old lecturing technique for decades, despite all this interactive technology. We've learned a lot about psychology and productivity. We have tried improving education technology, but it seems to just be a side gimmick. This can also be combined with upcoming new tech like AI to work better. It seems like something that compounds very well. If you can hack your brain to have, say, 90% comprehension, and comprehend harder things, you can also discover better education techniques and train others. Energy would be second. Oil has already produced trillionaire families, but it's too big to concentrate on one person. I'd imagine Bill Gates's shiny new nuclear plants could push him into trillionaire territory. Combined with the new electrical vehicle trend, people could be migrating from oil to electricity.

markovian 7y ago
I'm betting on Education too. Healthcare seems just as big and inefficient to me honestly.
- muzani 7y ago
  Healthcare, yeah. It doesn't have the exponential effect, though, and it's a big market spread over many players. I'm sure it could be more efficient, but how much does that change? Then again, reading the Checklist Manifesto, where a checklist made such a difference, that makes me think that healthcare can be far improved.
methusala8 7y ago
Any particular thoughts on how to improve education with interactive technology? I am a teacher and hence curious on how it can be improved.

deepaksurti 7y ago

The industry that solves climate change without space colonisation will produce the first trillionaire.