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Netflix claims an UHD stream is 25 Mbps. This is probably the most demanding use case for your average consumer, but it may not be a rare use case in the near f

Netflix claims an UHD stream is 25 Mbps. This is probably the most demanding use case for your average consumer, but it may not be a rare use case in the near future. Each satellite can support 800 UHD streams. That doesn't seem sufficient if each satellite covers a large geographic area. This suggests to me a low data cap and/or rate, perhaps comparable to DSL.

mastax 7y ago
12,000 satellites is the current FCC approved launch figures, I believe. 20Gbps per satellite but I don't know if that's full duplex or how much is divided between terminal/gateway, so lets divide that in half. For simplicity let's say they only sell consumer-grade 100Mbps connections, which are oversubscribed 100x as is typical. Divide the possible number of customers by 3 to account for uneven geographic distribution and other factors. 12000 * 20Gbps / 2 * 100 / 100Mbps / 3 = 40,000,000 customers A service like that could sell for a lot in rural North America, but maybe not to 40m customers. Let's assume most of those customers are from lower income countries or from places with more competitive ISP environments. Maybe $20/mo average revenue per customer. That's $800m a month. That already sounds compelling to me, before considering the potential for more or higher bandwidth satellites, or for higher margin commercial or government contracts.
- ianai 7y ago
  Another calculation is revenue per satellite per customer served. Would 100k per month per satellite finance these things long term?
  - Paul-ish 7y ago
    This seems like the important metric.
- sneak 7y ago
  I think your simple calculation assumes relatively even geographical subscriber distribution, which absolutely is not the case. Just rough estimating, assuming every other figure is approximately correct, you’ll probably have to cut that by 50-75% based on people’s natural tendency to live near other people. A few HFT customers will probably finance the whole thing, tbh.
- beerandt 7y ago
  You're forgetting that this is a satellite constellation- I'm not sure what the orbital parameters are offhand, but I'd divide that number by at least 4 (and maybe up to 20), based on number of satellites over the service area(s) at any given moment. Last I saw, they were reconfiguring deployment plans to go for higher density constellation in the lower latitudes before worldwide coverage, so I'm not sure if this is even knowable at this point.
- 6nf 7y ago
  This first round of sats have 20Gbps but the next gen will be much faster.
- dzhiurgis 7y ago
  ($800m a month * 12month * 5month sat lifespan)/12000 sats = of 40m revenue per satellite 150kg sat to launch at $2,719kg/leo costs $0.4m

mastax 7y ago

12,000 satellites is the current FCC approved launch figures, I believe. 20Gbps per satellite but I don't know if that's full duplex or how much is divided between terminal/gateway, so lets divide that in half. For simplicity let's say they only sell consumer-grade 100Mbps connections, which are oversubscribed 100x as is typical. Divide the possible number of customers by 3 to account for uneven geographic distribution and other factors. 12000 * 20Gbps / 2 * 100 / 100Mbps / 3 = 40,000,000 customers A service like that could sell for a lot in rural North America, but maybe not to 40m customers. Let's assume most of those customers are from lower income countries or from places with more competitive ISP environments. Maybe $20/mo average revenue per customer. That's $800m a month. That already sounds compelling to me, before considering the potential for more or higher bandwidth satellites, or for higher margin commercial or government contracts.

ianai 7y ago
Another calculation is revenue per satellite per customer served. Would 100k per month per satellite finance these things long term?
- Paul-ish 7y ago
  This seems like the important metric.
sneak 7y ago
I think your simple calculation assumes relatively even geographical subscriber distribution, which absolutely is not the case. Just rough estimating, assuming every other figure is approximately correct, you’ll probably have to cut that by 50-75% based on people’s natural tendency to live near other people. A few HFT customers will probably finance the whole thing, tbh.
beerandt 7y ago
You're forgetting that this is a satellite constellation- I'm not sure what the orbital parameters are offhand, but I'd divide that number by at least 4 (and maybe up to 20), based on number of satellites over the service area(s) at any given moment. Last I saw, they were reconfiguring deployment plans to go for higher density constellation in the lower latitudes before worldwide coverage, so I'm not sure if this is even knowable at this point.
6nf 7y ago
This first round of sats have 20Gbps but the next gen will be much faster.
dzhiurgis 7y ago
($800m a month * 12month * 5month sat lifespan)/12000 sats = of 40m revenue per satellite 150kg sat to launch at $2,719kg/leo costs $0.4m