13 ms·
Apple dominates the smartwatch category, but it's not a widely mainstream one. (Fitness watches are actually more widespread and popular but that is besides the
by CrackerNews 7y ago
Apple dominates the smartwatch category, but it's not a widely mainstream one. (Fitness watches are actually more widespread and popular but that is besides the point.) AR could end up being in a similar position. Perhaps over a very long time that technology will be miniaturized and sophisicated enough while having cheaper options that it will become mainstream.
The same predictions of Apple creating and dominating a mass market have been made over and over. While they do dominate, they aren't necessarily as widespread as the iPhone and instead serve as status signifiers for the brand and their technological prestige over the competition.
The iPad was predicted to herald in the post-PC revolution, and while it had an impact, it failed to completely displace the PC, and its once surging growth has plateaued due to its limitations as a convenient consumption device.
Apple infamously increments in features over time so I expect their AR solution to be presented as a step towards the future that the Apple Watch was presented as. I'm still waiting for that touted smartwatch-enabled future. Apple Watches are present here and there but smartwatches are still niche from being too expensive for an impulse buy and do not outweigh their use value compared to a smartphone.
AR holds a lot of promise, but if it does disrupt anything, I would not expect it for a long time due to VR's difficulties in attracting and maintaining the mainstream from cost, ease of use, technological limits, and a vibrant ecosystem of killer apps. I would instead expect it to perform similarly to the Apple Watch until I can see for myself that they can deliver on great innovative changes in AR technology and demonstrable use cases to justify AR. Apple can make great quality products, but they're not going to forge a future out of nothing like the Apple Watch was hyped to be capable of doing. Perhaps at best, AR could perform as well as the iPad.