In reality, that might be the case here as well. All the OP article is saying is that there was a ~2.5 increase in returns just after the penalties were elimin

In reality, that might be the case here as well. All the OP article is saying is that there was a ~2.5 increase in returns just after the penalties were eliminated. That might be 2.5x a very small number, and it might also come with a longer term increase in book theft.