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Although it feels inevitable, I think what’s interesting to consider is that history would indicate that Apple is likely NOT to be the company that really usher

by nlh 7y ago

Although it feels inevitable, I think what’s interesting to consider is that history would indicate that Apple is likely NOT to be the company that really ushers in the shift from ~5 inch screens we hold in front of us to an AR-based world. In the same way that in early 2000s, yes, Dell definitely moved us forward with a great line of laptops, but the Sony Vaio (and, later, MacBooks) are what brought laptops to consumers in a real way, and yes of course, Motorola and Nokia et al made the first real push at mobile, but Apple made mobile phones a mass-market accessory item. I wonder if Apple will end up being the Dell / Nokia of the AR world, and some company we haven’t yet considered ends up really owning the revolution.

MuffinFlavored 7y ago
Why couldn't Apple (who usually makes the highest quality devices in each sector) be the company to repeat what they did for smartphones / laptops for AR gear?
oflannabhra 7y ago
I’m not sure what about this article specifically that makes you feel that way. You are correct, in general, that firms that are successful because of an innovative technology, typically get surpassed by the next innovative technology to come to the market. See Clayton Christensen’s The Innovators Dilemma. However, Apple is one company that seems to have broken the trend, several times, in fact. Past success is not always an indicator of future success, but I’m personally not willing to bet against Apple at this point.
Despegar 7y ago
This is odd because history actually suggests the exact opposite. It suggests that not only will Apple be the company that makes AR a category for the mainstream (if it is to be one at all), but that they'll also own the revolution as well. Apple Watch and AirPods are two recent examples that make the case for the latter. If you just do a cursory analysis of the potential competitors and what they're good at, it becomes actually very easy to say that Apple will own this market.
CrackerNews 7y ago
Apple dominates the smartwatch category, but it's not a widely mainstream one. (Fitness watches are actually more widespread and popular but that is besides the point.) AR could end up being in a similar position. Perhaps over a very long time that technology will be miniaturized and sophisicated enough while having cheaper options that it will become mainstream. The same predictions of Apple creating and dominating a mass market have been made over and over. While they do dominate, they aren't necessarily as widespread as the iPhone and instead serve as status signifiers for the brand and their technological prestige over the competition. The iPad was predicted to herald in the post-PC revolution, and while it had an impact, it failed to completely displace the PC, and its once surging growth has plateaued due to its limitations as a convenient consumption device. Apple infamously increments in features over time so I expect their AR solution to be presented as a step towards the future that the Apple Watch was presented as. I'm still waiting for that touted smartwatch-enabled future. Apple Watches are present here and there but smartwatches are still niche from being too expensive for an impulse buy and do not outweigh their use value compared to a smartphone. AR holds a lot of promise, but if it does disrupt anything, I would not expect it for a long time due to VR's difficulties in attracting and maintaining the mainstream from cost, ease of use, technological limits, and a vibrant ecosystem of killer apps. I would instead expect it to perform similarly to the Apple Watch until I can see for myself that they can deliver on great innovative changes in AR technology and demonstrable use cases to justify AR. Apple can make great quality products, but they're not going to forge a future out of nothing like the Apple Watch was hyped to be capable of doing. Perhaps at best, AR could perform as well as the iPad.

by nlh 7y ago

MuffinFlavored 7y ago

Why couldn't Apple (who usually makes the highest quality devices in each sector) be the company to repeat what they did for smartphones / laptops for AR gear?

oflannabhra 7y ago

I’m not sure what about this article specifically that makes you feel that way. You are correct, in general, that firms that are successful because of an innovative technology, typically get surpassed by the next innovative technology to come to the market. See Clayton Christensen’s The Innovators Dilemma. However, Apple is one company that seems to have broken the trend, several times, in fact. Past success is not always an indicator of future success, but I’m personally not willing to bet against Apple at this point.

Despegar 7y ago

This is odd because history actually suggests the exact opposite. It suggests that not only will Apple be the company that makes AR a category for the mainstream (if it is to be one at all), but that they'll also own the revolution as well. Apple Watch and AirPods are two recent examples that make the case for the latter. If you just do a cursory analysis of the potential competitors and what they're good at, it becomes actually very easy to say that Apple will own this market.

CrackerNews 7y ago

Apple dominates the smartwatch category, but it's not a widely mainstream one. (Fitness watches are actually more widespread and popular but that is besides the point.) AR could end up being in a similar position. Perhaps over a very long time that technology will be miniaturized and sophisicated enough while having cheaper options that it will become mainstream. The same predictions of Apple creating and dominating a mass market have been made over and over. While they do dominate, they aren't necessarily as widespread as the iPhone and instead serve as status signifiers for the brand and their technological prestige over the competition. The iPad was predicted to herald in the post-PC revolution, and while it had an impact, it failed to completely displace the PC, and its once surging growth has plateaued due to its limitations as a convenient consumption device. Apple infamously increments in features over time so I expect their AR solution to be presented as a step towards the future that the Apple Watch was presented as. I'm still waiting for that touted smartwatch-enabled future. Apple Watches are present here and there but smartwatches are still niche from being too expensive for an impulse buy and do not outweigh their use value compared to a smartphone. AR holds a lot of promise, but if it does disrupt anything, I would not expect it for a long time due to VR's difficulties in attracting and maintaining the mainstream from cost, ease of use, technological limits, and a vibrant ecosystem of killer apps. I would instead expect it to perform similarly to the Apple Watch until I can see for myself that they can deliver on great innovative changes in AR technology and demonstrable use cases to justify AR. Apple can make great quality products, but they're not going to forge a future out of nothing like the Apple Watch was hyped to be capable of doing. Perhaps at best, AR could perform as well as the iPad.