34 ms·
A while ago, I was curious about the relationship between income taxes and growth in the US, so I looked up the data... and I was unable to find any clear relat
by cs702 7y ago
A while ago, I was curious about the relationship between income taxes and growth in the US, so I looked up the data... and I was unable to find any clear relationship!!!
As one of many possible examples I could give, below is a table I compiled showing the highest marginal federal income tax rate and year-over-year real GDP growth in the US since 1950. Can you find a relationship?
My conclusion, so far: There's a tremendous amount of theory, and rhetoric, and posturing, and straw-man arguments... but very little or ZERO actual evidence that national economic growth is impacted one way or another. (In fact, in many cases the data shows higher economic growth during periods of higher taxation at the top of the income distribution.)
Highest Real GDP
Year Tax Rate Change
1950: 84.4% 8.7%
1951: 91.0% 8.0%
1952: 92.0% 4.1%
1953: 92.0% 4.7%
1954: 91.0% -0.6%
1955: 91.0% 7.1%
1956: 91.0% 2.1%
1957: 91.0% 2.1%
1958: 91.0% -0.7%
1959: 91.0% 6.9%
1960: 91.0% 2.6%
1961: 91.0% 2.6%
1962: 91.0% 6.1%
1963: 91.0% 4.4%
1964: 77.0% 5.8%
1965: 70.0% 6.5%
1966: 70.0% 6.6%
1967: 70.0% 2.7%
1968: 75.3% 4.9%
1969: 77.0% 3.1%
1970: 71.8% 0.2%
1971: 70.0% 3.3%
1972: 70.0% 5.3%
1973: 70.0% 5.6%
1974: 70.0% -0.5%
1975: 70.0% -0.2%
1976: 70.0% 5.4%
1977: 70.0% 4.6%
1978: 70.0% 5.5%
1979: 70.0% 3.2%
1980: 70.0% -0.3%
1981: 69.1% 2.5%
1982: 50.0% -1.8%
1983: 50.0% 4.6%
1984: 50.0% 7.2%
1985: 50.0% 4.2%
1986: 50.0% 3.5%
1987: 38.5% 3.5%
1988: 28.0% 4.2%
1989: 28.0% 3.7%
1990: 28.0% 1.9%
1991: 31.0% -0.1%
1992: 31.0% 3.5%
1993: 39.6% 2.8%
1994: 39.6% 4.0%
1995: 39.6% 2.7%
1996: 39.6% 3.8%
1997: 39.6% 4.4%
1998: 39.6% 4.5%
1999: 39.6% 4.8%
2000: 39.6% 4.1%
2001: 39.1% 1.0%
2002: 38.6% 1.7%
2003: 35.0% 2.9%
2004: 35.0% 3.8%
2005: 35.0% 3.5%
2006: 35.0% 2.9%
2007: 35.0% 1.9%
2008: 35.0% -0.1%
2009: 35.0% -2.5%
2010: 35.0% 2.6%
2011: 35.0% 1.6%
2012: 35.0% 2.2%
2013: 39.6% 1.8%
2014: 39.6% 2.5%
2015: 39.6% 2.9%
2016: 39.6% 1.6%
2017: 39.6% 2.4%
2018: 37.0% 2.9%
Sources:
Year-over-year real GDP growth: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=pssP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=pssP
Tax rates: https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/historical-highest-marginal-income-tax-rates https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/historical-highes...