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Wait... what? > Intel CFO George Davis implied during an interview with Barron's this week that the company is digging in its heels for the long haul, saying "

Wait... what? > Intel CFO George Davis implied during an interview with Barron's this week that the company is digging in its heels for the long haul, saying "What we’ve said though, the delay in 10 nanometer means that we’re going to be a little bit disadvantaged on unit cost for a period of time." Davis then noted the company expects to return to revenue growth and margin expansion in 2023 when it overcomes the late ramp to 10nm. As a result, it's rational to expect lower pricing on Intel's upcoming 10th-Gen Comet Lake processors, too. If everything goes right for Intel, they don't expect revenue growth until 2023? By the time Intel hits 10nm in stride, TSMC plans to be rolling out their 3nm... [1] [1] https://fuse.wikichip.org/news/2567/tsmc-talks-7nm-5nm-yield-and-next-gen-5g-and-hpc-packaging/ https://fuse.wikichip.org/news/2567/tsmc-talks-7nm-5nm-yield...

jcranmer 7y ago
Intel plans to start shipping 7nm in 2021, and 5nm would be coming online perhaps 2023. See https://www.anandtech.com/show/14312/intel-process-technology-roadmap-refined-nodes-specialized-technologies https://www.anandtech.com/show/14312/intel-process-technolog... as a source.
- baybal2 7y ago
  The thing is, Intel can't progress to their 7nm node if they can't even spin up 10nm one. Siltronics (Intel's wafer supplier) is said to now to have a field day. Intel haven't opened any new 14nm fabs, and those were maxed out years ago. The only explanation why Intel not only expanded their orders to Siltronics, but even entered new negotiations with other suppliers, is that they are spending a whack a lot of wafer on something other than existing 14nm manufacturing. It is either their GPU's are actually being taped out in extreme secrecy, or the yield on 10nm is so low that they are "bruteforcing" it
  - zaarn 7y ago
    My bet is on the later, considering early 10nm CPUs had the iGPU fused off and fairly abysmal and inconsistent overclock performance.
- NicoJuicy 7y ago
  This article is from May and it doesn't mention 5 nm, 7nm plan was based on the Intel investor press, that was published on the same day from Intel PR. 10nm CPU Ships in June; 7nm Product in 2021 https://newsroom.intel.com/news/2019-intel-investor-meeting/#gs.d3i14m https://newsroom.intel.com/news/2019-intel-investor-meeting/... And it's probably very optimistic about deadlines, since June is a while ago ;) > Davis then noted the company expects to return to revenue growth and margin expansion in 2023 when it overcomes the late ramp to 10nm. Intel isn't mentioning 7nm anywhere anymore. They are mentioning 10nm for 2021. 5nm was mentioned by Samsung for 2023, TSMC had 3nm planned for then. ----------------- That means AMD still has > 3 years to capture significant market share. That's plenty of momentum. Worst case is at the current 5% they have now without Ryzen 3. Q3 2016 was 9,1% share. Q3 2019 is 18%. And they have free play at least until 2023. As the 4th and 5th generation of Ryzen seems to be on schedule, according to AMD :) . AMD is also not alone, they gain momentum thanks to TSMC and TSMC's clients ( nvidia, Apple, ...) - Previously I thought 2021, but I'm adjusting it to 2023, as Intel doesn't seem to have a real competitor for AMD yet. Just a next iteration chipset.
- zaarn 7y ago
  10nm has been a trainwreck and is late, 7nm and 5nm have been removed from quite a few timelines they post because they suspect the same issues as with 10 nm (and 10nm isn't ready until 2020, how are they going to ship 7nm in 2021?)
  - Hikikomori 7y ago
    They use different lithography technology and different teams are working on them. So 7nm does not depend on the success of 10nm.
    - zaarn 7y ago
      I would still bet on 7nm being the same trainwreck of a failure.
      - Hikikomori 7y ago
        It might be. I don't think we can draw any conclusions based on how 10nm is going though.
        ksec 7y ago
        Similar to the Siltronics (Intel's wafer supplier) comment above, We can certainly gets some hint from ASML, the only supplier of EUV lithography system. There are already backlogs to fill and Samsung and TSMC seems to be holding majority of those orders according to their investor meeting notes. So unless ASML has some EUV system sitting around waiting for Intel to pick up, their 7nm ramp won't be anywhere near TSMC or even Samsung. So 7nm could just be another 10nm, it shipped in July, but it is still no where to be seen in November.

jcranmer 7y ago

Intel plans to start shipping 7nm in 2021, and 5nm would be coming online perhaps 2023. See https://www.anandtech.com/show/14312/intel-process-technology-roadmap-refined-nodes-specialized-technologies https://www.anandtech.com/show/14312/intel-process-technolog... as a source.

baybal2 7y ago
The thing is, Intel can't progress to their 7nm node if they can't even spin up 10nm one. Siltronics (Intel's wafer supplier) is said to now to have a field day. Intel haven't opened any new 14nm fabs, and those were maxed out years ago. The only explanation why Intel not only expanded their orders to Siltronics, but even entered new negotiations with other suppliers, is that they are spending a whack a lot of wafer on something other than existing 14nm manufacturing. It is either their GPU's are actually being taped out in extreme secrecy, or the yield on 10nm is so low that they are "bruteforcing" it
- zaarn 7y ago
  My bet is on the later, considering early 10nm CPUs had the iGPU fused off and fairly abysmal and inconsistent overclock performance.
NicoJuicy 7y ago
This article is from May and it doesn't mention 5 nm, 7nm plan was based on the Intel investor press, that was published on the same day from Intel PR. 10nm CPU Ships in June; 7nm Product in 2021 https://newsroom.intel.com/news/2019-intel-investor-meeting/#gs.d3i14m https://newsroom.intel.com/news/2019-intel-investor-meeting/... And it's probably very optimistic about deadlines, since June is a while ago ;) > Davis then noted the company expects to return to revenue growth and margin expansion in 2023 when it overcomes the late ramp to 10nm. Intel isn't mentioning 7nm anywhere anymore. They are mentioning 10nm for 2021. 5nm was mentioned by Samsung for 2023, TSMC had 3nm planned for then. ----------------- That means AMD still has > 3 years to capture significant market share. That's plenty of momentum. Worst case is at the current 5% they have now without Ryzen 3. Q3 2016 was 9,1% share. Q3 2019 is 18%. And they have free play at least until 2023. As the 4th and 5th generation of Ryzen seems to be on schedule, according to AMD :) . AMD is also not alone, they gain momentum thanks to TSMC and TSMC's clients ( nvidia, Apple, ...) - Previously I thought 2021, but I'm adjusting it to 2023, as Intel doesn't seem to have a real competitor for AMD yet. Just a next iteration chipset.
zaarn 7y ago
10nm has been a trainwreck and is late, 7nm and 5nm have been removed from quite a few timelines they post because they suspect the same issues as with 10 nm (and 10nm isn't ready until 2020, how are they going to ship 7nm in 2021?)
- Hikikomori 7y ago
  They use different lithography technology and different teams are working on them. So 7nm does not depend on the success of 10nm.
  - zaarn 7y ago
    I would still bet on 7nm being the same trainwreck of a failure.
    - Hikikomori 7y ago
      It might be. I don't think we can draw any conclusions based on how 10nm is going though.
      - ksec 7y ago
        Similar to the Siltronics (Intel's wafer supplier) comment above, We can certainly gets some hint from ASML, the only supplier of EUV lithography system. There are already backlogs to fill and Samsung and TSMC seems to be holding majority of those orders according to their investor meeting notes. So unless ASML has some EUV system sitting around waiting for Intel to pick up, their 7nm ramp won't be anywhere near TSMC or even Samsung. So 7nm could just be another 10nm, it shipped in July, but it is still no where to be seen in November.