These things seem almost certain to me: * Self-driving cars are not going to be here in less than 5 years * The tech is improving fast enough that it will end

These things seem almost certain to me: * Self-driving cars are not going to be here in less than 5 years * The tech is improving fast enough that it will end up working, and not being vaporware. Within 20 years, self-driving cars will be more than 50% of the new car sales, and eventually it will become the norm.