A good discretionary strategy for these sort of things is to do a long volatility options trade on the day lockups end. Either the market has overestimated the

A good discretionary strategy for these sort of things is to do a long volatility options trade on the day lockups end. Either the market has overestimated the number of shares being sold or has underestimated it. Either way, you make money. Of course ATM options are almost always more expensive if they expire close after the lockup period ends. But even so, in my experience, you can make some money reliably using this signal and a little discretion.