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Part of the misunderstanding, at least as I understand it, is that for a growing company the vast majority of the expected earnings come a very long time in the
by cactus2093 7y ago
Part of the misunderstanding, at least as I understand it, is that for a growing company the vast majority of the expected earnings come a very long time in the future.
Peter Thiel talks about this for Paypal in Zero to One, IIRC in 2001 their projections showed that like 75% or more of the net present value would come in 2011 and beyond.
I don't actually know how you make a model like that, clearly you need to assume a maximum size and a decline at some point in the future or else you would expect infinite future revenue? But obviously people are doing that, amonth other types of models for Uber and deciding it's still worth $45 Billion as of today. If not the stock price wouldn't be that high. I think the reason you don't see it is just that it's more advanced than what a regular journalist is going to do, and I assume you're not paying for the right specialist publications to have access to that level of reports.
If you still think it's completely crazy, then what are you waiting for get out there and short the stock, there's free money to be made!