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I will just point out what I see as a contradiction in these statements: If getting out of the stock after the IPO and before the lockup expiry allows you to "

I will just point out what I see as a contradiction in these statements: If getting out of the stock after the IPO and before the lockup expiry allows you to "escape" the effect of the lockup expiry, then you are implicitly saying that the expiry was not priced in. I don't know what it means for a "slice" of the market to be priced a certain way. Uber has a clearing price which reflects all the opinions at any point in time. What is a slice?

erikpukinskis 7y ago
Basically, sort all shareholders by planned sale date. Then you can slice them into “bins”. Let’s say we want nine $5B bins. They will each have a median planned sale date. Made up example numbers: $0-$5B of market cap: plan to sell within 24h $5-$10B: plan to sell within 30d $10-$15B: plan to sell at the end of the quarter etc... For any given future event, it will only be implicated for some of those slices. So the cost of an event will only affect that part of today’s order book.