You are correct. Everything is priced in, alas, with probability of occurrence. If you look at option pricing the probablity is part of Black & Scholes formula.

You are correct. Everything is priced in, alas, with probability of occurrence. If you look at option pricing the probablity is part of Black & Scholes formula. Also, the market did not know about earning,this is a surprise information (or it should be). I would also argue that the market priced in new information within milliseconds.