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> UK should be now getting 350 million GBP per week for NHS. It hasn't left yet and the reality is that it'll take years to leave (if it does). You could mayb

by bArray 7y ago

> UK should be now getting 350 million GBP per week for NHS. It hasn't left yet and the reality is that it'll take years to leave (if it does). You could maybe justify £350 million a week over the course of a year based on a hard Brexit, where the UK doesn't pay the £30-£40 billion divorce settlement. It's unclear how much will be spent in replacing EU infrastructure, but it should be overall beneficial to the UK once trade agreements are in place after a number of years.

Torn 7y ago
> it should be overall beneficial to the UK once trade agreements are in place after a number of years It probably won't. I don't know why leavers think the UK will be able to negotiate better trade deals than a bloc of 27 countries.
- jjeaff 7y ago
  I'm no expert, but perhaps not having to comprise with 27 other nations will allow the UK to negotiate the trade deals that benefit them the most, rather than deals that are agreed upon by a majority of countries in the EU.
- bArray 7y ago
  This is going largely off topic, but I'll indulge. > I don't know why leavers think the UK will be able to > negotiate better trade deals than a bloc of 27 countries. Other than shear volume, what does the EU offer that the UK is not capable of? And is what the EU offers worth ~£9 billion a year? The UK doesn't have to make better trade deals, they can even afford to be slightly worse and still be of a net benefit. The trade deals would have to be ~£9 billion worse in order for them not to be beneficial. Playing 4D chess: I highly suspect that the UK will receive very good trade deals in a medium/long-term gamble by other super powers to destabilize the EU.
  - dragonwriter 7y ago
    > Other than shear volume, what does the EU offer that the UK is not capable of? Shear volume is a big part of why Communist China has better trade deals with the US than Communist Cuba, I wouldn't discount the importance of volume in trade negotiations. > I highly suspect that the UK will receive very good trade deals in a medium/long-term gamble by other super powers to destabilize the EU. Very few of the UK’s potential trade partners are superpowers where the actors necessary to negotiate and ratify a trade deal have consensus around destabilizing the EU as a goal. With a generous definition of “superpower”, you have China and Russia and that's it.
    - bArray 7y ago
      > Shear volume is a big part of why Communist China has > better trade deals with the US than Communist Cuba, I > wouldn't discount the importance of volume in trade > negotiations. That's not entirely true, it also has somewhat to do with their relaxed policy on human rights and their status in the WTO. Now that the US is looking to balance the books, China's economy has taken quite a serious hit. That said, the UK is also part of a much older and relatively large trading group - the Commonwealth. > Very few of the UK’s potential trade partners are > superpowers where the actors necessary to negotiate and > ratify a trade deal have consensus around destabilizing > the EU as a goal. What you hear publicly and what goes on behind closed doors, are too very different things. I highly suspect that the US also has a vested interest in breaking up the EU, after all, it's the EU which is putting pressure on its booming tech industry for example. I also suspect that there are multiple other powers poised to take advantage of destabilization of the EU. I also further suspect the EU has realized this threat, which is why the UK must help safeguard the EU-based banks for a Brexit deal. > With a generous definition of “superpower”, you have China > and Russia and that's it. The term "superpower" is not easily defined at the best of times, granted.

by bArray 7y ago

Torn 7y ago

> it should be overall beneficial to the UK once trade agreements are in place after a number of years It probably won't. I don't know why leavers think the UK will be able to negotiate better trade deals than a bloc of 27 countries.

jjeaff 7y ago
I'm no expert, but perhaps not having to comprise with 27 other nations will allow the UK to negotiate the trade deals that benefit them the most, rather than deals that are agreed upon by a majority of countries in the EU.
bArray 7y ago
This is going largely off topic, but I'll indulge. > I don't know why leavers think the UK will be able to > negotiate better trade deals than a bloc of 27 countries. Other than shear volume, what does the EU offer that the UK is not capable of? And is what the EU offers worth ~£9 billion a year? The UK doesn't have to make better trade deals, they can even afford to be slightly worse and still be of a net benefit. The trade deals would have to be ~£9 billion worse in order for them not to be beneficial. Playing 4D chess: I highly suspect that the UK will receive very good trade deals in a medium/long-term gamble by other super powers to destabilize the EU.
- dragonwriter 7y ago
  > Other than shear volume, what does the EU offer that the UK is not capable of? Shear volume is a big part of why Communist China has better trade deals with the US than Communist Cuba, I wouldn't discount the importance of volume in trade negotiations. > I highly suspect that the UK will receive very good trade deals in a medium/long-term gamble by other super powers to destabilize the EU. Very few of the UK’s potential trade partners are superpowers where the actors necessary to negotiate and ratify a trade deal have consensus around destabilizing the EU as a goal. With a generous definition of “superpower”, you have China and Russia and that's it.
  - bArray 7y ago
    > Shear volume is a big part of why Communist China has > better trade deals with the US than Communist Cuba, I > wouldn't discount the importance of volume in trade > negotiations. That's not entirely true, it also has somewhat to do with their relaxed policy on human rights and their status in the WTO. Now that the US is looking to balance the books, China's economy has taken quite a serious hit. That said, the UK is also part of a much older and relatively large trading group - the Commonwealth. > Very few of the UK’s potential trade partners are > superpowers where the actors necessary to negotiate and > ratify a trade deal have consensus around destabilizing > the EU as a goal. What you hear publicly and what goes on behind closed doors, are too very different things. I highly suspect that the US also has a vested interest in breaking up the EU, after all, it's the EU which is putting pressure on its booming tech industry for example. I also suspect that there are multiple other powers poised to take advantage of destabilization of the EU. I also further suspect the EU has realized this threat, which is why the UK must help safeguard the EU-based banks for a Brexit deal. > With a generous definition of “superpower”, you have China > and Russia and that's it. The term "superpower" is not easily defined at the best of times, granted.