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It’s a very risky bet for sure. But there is a very small possibility central banks will go back to gold standard to instil confidence during a Great Recession

It’s a very risky bet for sure. But there is a very small possibility central banks will go back to gold standard to instil confidence during a Great Recession when markets fall by 50+% in a very short time.

DuskStar 7y ago
Personally, I'd take central banks heading back to the gold standard as a massive signal that things were about to get worse, not better. It'd be like having your oncologist suggest enrollment in a phase-one study - they aren't doing that because the outlook of a patient in a phase-one study is good, but because the alternative is worse, and now they're reduced to trying for a hail mary.
- richardknop 7y ago
  Gold is able to support entire global GDP and also growth. It all depends on the price. With current gold price a return to gold standard would be a disaster and would bring on the greatest recession of our lifetimes. But at about 10k price gold standard starts to make sense. The idea is that during the next big crises central banks will have no tools to use (we are close to 0 in the US and in negative rates across the world) to support a recovery so a radical move will be needed to bring back confidence in the financial system. A return to gold standard at a much higher gold price (calculated based on the world GDP and GDP growth) would be a very drastic move central banks could go for if situation got very dire but it might be the only choice they will have since we haven't really normalised the financial system after the 2008 crises and during the next crises we will be at 0 interest rates. And if there is a choice between 556 nato rounds and going back to gold standard and returning back to some sort of stability for the world economy, gold would be much preferred to the anarchy and shots being fired.
  - DuskStar 7y ago
    I'm not saying that a return to a gold standard couldn't work - just that I think it would be extremely unlikely to work. And I'd greatly prefer "move to gold standard" over "society collapses", too. It's just I don't think I get to choose.

DuskStar 7y ago

Personally, I'd take central banks heading back to the gold standard as a massive signal that things were about to get worse, not better. It'd be like having your oncologist suggest enrollment in a phase-one study - they aren't doing that because the outlook of a patient in a phase-one study is good, but because the alternative is worse, and now they're reduced to trying for a hail mary.

richardknop 7y ago
Gold is able to support entire global GDP and also growth. It all depends on the price. With current gold price a return to gold standard would be a disaster and would bring on the greatest recession of our lifetimes. But at about 10k price gold standard starts to make sense. The idea is that during the next big crises central banks will have no tools to use (we are close to 0 in the US and in negative rates across the world) to support a recovery so a radical move will be needed to bring back confidence in the financial system. A return to gold standard at a much higher gold price (calculated based on the world GDP and GDP growth) would be a very drastic move central banks could go for if situation got very dire but it might be the only choice they will have since we haven't really normalised the financial system after the 2008 crises and during the next crises we will be at 0 interest rates. And if there is a choice between 556 nato rounds and going back to gold standard and returning back to some sort of stability for the world economy, gold would be much preferred to the anarchy and shots being fired.
- DuskStar 7y ago
  I'm not saying that a return to a gold standard couldn't work - just that I think it would be extremely unlikely to work. And I'd greatly prefer "move to gold standard" over "society collapses", too. It's just I don't think I get to choose.