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since jan 2 2019 S&P 500 is up from 2510 => 3074 so if you read a doom porn article and liquidated on 12/30 you missed out on insane growth spurt this is no di

since jan 2 2019 S&P 500 is up from 2510 => 3074 so if you read a doom porn article and liquidated on 12/30 you missed out on insane growth spurt this is no different. you have to factor in potential lost growth when you go risk averse mode; it's against our loss aversion bias but has to be done when thinking long term.

Vysero 7y ago
I think the general trend has been an increasingly healthy stock market since around 09 correct? That was 10 years ago, how much longer can this balloon rise? Currently I am about 70/30 stocks/bonds perhaps I should just stay put considering I really don't know.
- refurb 7y ago
  Timing is the market is a luck play. You might be right and avoid a loss or you might be wrong and miss out on big returns. Easier to stay invested. That way you’re fully in whenever the bottom comes.
- maximente 7y ago
  don't take this personally, but you don't sound ready to invest in stocks. losing huge amounts of money is going to happen. there's nothing you can do to avoid it, other than not invest in stocks. the tradeoff is that it always comes back higher. being risk averse will actually cost you hundreds of thousands of dollars in the long term. research cFIRESim and plug the numbers in yourself: the portfolios most likely to survive long retirements with money left are those with higher stock %s (i'm talking 90% plus). you can't get enough growth with materially high bond %s to survive long periods of withdrawing. satisfying your risk averse reptile brain will actually generally lead to you drawing 100% of your savings down, which isn't great if you aren't earning via something else. if you are interested in material long term growth, e.g. enough to outpace inflation, you have to accept the fact that you will lose enormous amounts of cash virtually overnight. your other options are to lose your wealth due to inflation/aversion to risk. it's regrettable, but that's the situation we are in with targeted 2%+ inflation. best of luck!
  - Vysero 7y ago
    So you just hope to god that nothing bad ever happens in your life that would require you to pull your money out? That sounds incredibly foolish to me considering the chances of something going terribly wrong in your life are incredibly high. People get diagnosed with brain cancer every single hour of every single day. Better hope it doesn't happen when the markets down I guess.
karakot 7y ago
And a month ago it was about the same as in Jan 2018.

Vysero 7y ago

I think the general trend has been an increasingly healthy stock market since around 09 correct? That was 10 years ago, how much longer can this balloon rise? Currently I am about 70/30 stocks/bonds perhaps I should just stay put considering I really don't know.

refurb 7y ago
Timing is the market is a luck play. You might be right and avoid a loss or you might be wrong and miss out on big returns. Easier to stay invested. That way you’re fully in whenever the bottom comes.
maximente 7y ago
don't take this personally, but you don't sound ready to invest in stocks. losing huge amounts of money is going to happen. there's nothing you can do to avoid it, other than not invest in stocks. the tradeoff is that it always comes back higher. being risk averse will actually cost you hundreds of thousands of dollars in the long term. research cFIRESim and plug the numbers in yourself: the portfolios most likely to survive long retirements with money left are those with higher stock %s (i'm talking 90% plus). you can't get enough growth with materially high bond %s to survive long periods of withdrawing. satisfying your risk averse reptile brain will actually generally lead to you drawing 100% of your savings down, which isn't great if you aren't earning via something else. if you are interested in material long term growth, e.g. enough to outpace inflation, you have to accept the fact that you will lose enormous amounts of cash virtually overnight. your other options are to lose your wealth due to inflation/aversion to risk. it's regrettable, but that's the situation we are in with targeted 2%+ inflation. best of luck!
- Vysero 7y ago
  So you just hope to god that nothing bad ever happens in your life that would require you to pull your money out? That sounds incredibly foolish to me considering the chances of something going terribly wrong in your life are incredibly high. People get diagnosed with brain cancer every single hour of every single day. Better hope it doesn't happen when the markets down I guess.

karakot 7y ago

And a month ago it was about the same as in Jan 2018.