4 ms·

A 2% profit with a 5% chance of going busto doesn’t sound like a super smart trade, unless I’m missing something.

• kgwgk 7y ago
  95% probability of winning 2% of $1mn = $20k 5% probability of losing $4k Not so bad (if you can get away with it).
• smabie 7y ago
  The expected value of such a trade is 19.2k. That sounds pretty fucking good to me. Of course, there’s some externalities not accounted for in that math.