5 ms·

Volkswagen isn't going to convert to electric anytime soon. Electric cars only make 1% of the annual car registrations in Germany and 0.18% of the total number

Volkswagen isn't going to convert to electric anytime soon. Electric cars only make 1% of the annual car registrations in Germany and 0.18% of the total number of cars registered. In fact, Volkswagen is planning a new factory for cars with combustion engines in Turkey. It's just currently put on hold due to the conflict at the Syrian border.

wongarsu 7y ago
Of course a giant company like Volkswagen won't turn around on a dime, it will be a slow transition; and probably never a complete one. But just from the fact that electric cars have a 5 times higher share of new registrations than of existing cars shows that it's a growing market, and adoption curves usually grow exponentially until you approach market saturation. Volkswagen is doing a lot to get a bigger piece of that pie.
- blattimwind 7y ago
  > Of course a giant company like Volkswagen won't turn around on a dime, it will be a slow transition; and probably never a complete one. Yes, there is a long tail of applications where EVs are not a reasonable proposition. Emergency services (police, medical, fire fighting) come to mind immediately. There is pretty much no way you can built an all-electric fire truck with batteries that isn't much worse than ICE fire trucks today: Battery weight means you can carry less water, which directly reduces operational capability; limited battery charge means the truck's pumps don't last as long, and a battery is much harder to refuel in the field than a tank of diesel. Similar reasons apply to ambulances. Some L.E. vehicles can reasonably be made to work as EVs (patrol cars), others not so much. Whenever you need to maximize off-grid operational time or you continuously need a lot of power, EVs are just not a sane option. Additionally the small number of these vehicles make their emissions rather irrelevant.
  - zozbot234 7y ago
    > and a battery is much harder to refuel in the field than a tank of diesel. You can use fuel cells. Harder than a tank of diesel (less energy dense), but not by much.
  - wongarsu 7y ago
    Most fire trucks in Germany would actually work well as EV: they rarely carry water, just pumps (places without hydrants are required by law to have water stored in a tank or lake); range isn't an issue since any place is reached by emergency services in under 10 minutes, even accounting for large scale operations that's not a lot of distance unless we are talking highly specialized vehicles; and the better acceleration of EVs might be a major speed boost. Similar reasoning applies to ambulances: small distances but high acceleration requirements. Of course in sparsely populated places like much of the US this looks completely different. Another class of vehicle that will hold onto ICE for a long while will be farming vehicles. I don't see a farmer recharging his combine harvester in the middle of the field until we have made significant advances in battery tech.
    - blattimwind 7y ago
      Tanklöschfahrzeuge normally do use their internal tanks, at least in my area. This makes sense because it reduces response time and you can start pumping out water immediately while the connection to the water line is made. The problem is not so much the driving range, that is true. The problem is that taking out a fire might take 10 minutes, 10 hours or 10 days. The electric truck is fine for 10 minutes, but it won't be fine when you have to stay on site for a couple hours.
  - rorykoehler 7y ago
    Fire trucks don't need much range and can charge between call outs.
thinkcontext 7y ago
Certainly ICE cars will make up most of their business for a while but they have converted a factory from ICE to EV [0] and are planning to invest 50B EUR in the effort [1]. [0] https://electrek.co/2019/11/04/vw-id3-production-electric-car-converts-factory/ https://electrek.co/2019/11/04/vw-id3-production-electric-ca... [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-strategy/vw-embarks-on-50-billion-electrification-plan-idUSKCN1NL0JX https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-strategy/vw-em...
MauranKilom 7y ago
But they also announced that they will not work on a new generation of combustion engines anymore: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-emissions-combustion/volkswagen-says-last-generation-of-combustion-engines-to-be-launched-in-2026-idUSKBN1O32O6 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-emissions-comb...
lispm 7y ago
Volkswagen has transformed a factory already and is starting mass production with 100000 cars for next year. From 2021 on Zwickau will produce electric cars only. Factories in Emden and Hannover will follow in 2022. https://www.freiepresse.de/nachrichten/sachsen/volkswagen-beginnt-in-zwickau-mit-serienfertigung-des-id-3-artikel10651530 https://www.freiepresse.de/nachrichten/sachsen/volkswagen-be...

wongarsu 7y ago

Of course a giant company like Volkswagen won't turn around on a dime, it will be a slow transition; and probably never a complete one. But just from the fact that electric cars have a 5 times higher share of new registrations than of existing cars shows that it's a growing market, and adoption curves usually grow exponentially until you approach market saturation. Volkswagen is doing a lot to get a bigger piece of that pie.

blattimwind 7y ago
> Of course a giant company like Volkswagen won't turn around on a dime, it will be a slow transition; and probably never a complete one. Yes, there is a long tail of applications where EVs are not a reasonable proposition. Emergency services (police, medical, fire fighting) come to mind immediately. There is pretty much no way you can built an all-electric fire truck with batteries that isn't much worse than ICE fire trucks today: Battery weight means you can carry less water, which directly reduces operational capability; limited battery charge means the truck's pumps don't last as long, and a battery is much harder to refuel in the field than a tank of diesel. Similar reasons apply to ambulances. Some L.E. vehicles can reasonably be made to work as EVs (patrol cars), others not so much. Whenever you need to maximize off-grid operational time or you continuously need a lot of power, EVs are just not a sane option. Additionally the small number of these vehicles make their emissions rather irrelevant.
- zozbot234 7y ago
  > and a battery is much harder to refuel in the field than a tank of diesel. You can use fuel cells. Harder than a tank of diesel (less energy dense), but not by much.
- wongarsu 7y ago
  Most fire trucks in Germany would actually work well as EV: they rarely carry water, just pumps (places without hydrants are required by law to have water stored in a tank or lake); range isn't an issue since any place is reached by emergency services in under 10 minutes, even accounting for large scale operations that's not a lot of distance unless we are talking highly specialized vehicles; and the better acceleration of EVs might be a major speed boost. Similar reasoning applies to ambulances: small distances but high acceleration requirements. Of course in sparsely populated places like much of the US this looks completely different. Another class of vehicle that will hold onto ICE for a long while will be farming vehicles. I don't see a farmer recharging his combine harvester in the middle of the field until we have made significant advances in battery tech.
  - blattimwind 7y ago
    Tanklöschfahrzeuge normally do use their internal tanks, at least in my area. This makes sense because it reduces response time and you can start pumping out water immediately while the connection to the water line is made. The problem is not so much the driving range, that is true. The problem is that taking out a fire might take 10 minutes, 10 hours or 10 days. The electric truck is fine for 10 minutes, but it won't be fine when you have to stay on site for a couple hours.
- rorykoehler 7y ago
  Fire trucks don't need much range and can charge between call outs.

thinkcontext 7y ago

Certainly ICE cars will make up most of their business for a while but they have converted a factory from ICE to EV [0] and are planning to invest 50B EUR in the effort [1]. [0] https://electrek.co/2019/11/04/vw-id3-production-electric-car-converts-factory/ https://electrek.co/2019/11/04/vw-id3-production-electric-ca... [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-strategy/vw-embarks-on-50-billion-electrification-plan-idUSKCN1NL0JX https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-strategy/vw-em...

MauranKilom 7y ago

But they also announced that they will not work on a new generation of combustion engines anymore: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-emissions-combustion/volkswagen-says-last-generation-of-combustion-engines-to-be-launched-in-2026-idUSKBN1O32O6 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-emissions-comb...

lispm 7y ago

Volkswagen has transformed a factory already and is starting mass production with 100000 cars for next year. From 2021 on Zwickau will produce electric cars only. Factories in Emden and Hannover will follow in 2022. https://www.freiepresse.de/nachrichten/sachsen/volkswagen-beginnt-in-zwickau-mit-serienfertigung-des-id-3-artikel10651530 https://www.freiepresse.de/nachrichten/sachsen/volkswagen-be...