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Everything coming out of the SABR community (SABR=society of american baseball researchers) says that high school stats are 99.9% worthless. The reasons are ma
by Travis 16y ago
Everything coming out of the SABR community (SABR=society of american baseball researchers) says that high school stats are 99.9% worthless. The reasons are many, but mainly it's the following: inconsistent contexts (fields, opponents, level of play) and small sample size. Most analysis suggests a full season (~700 plate appearances) isn't really enough for a hitter; h.s. seasons are generally around 100AB.
- michael_dorfman 16y agoOn top of that, there is the difference in the pitching pool. I used to do a bit of sabremetrics, back in the day, and I tried to do some projections of AA and AAA players into the majors, and found it almost impossible to get any decent correlations.
- Travis 16y agoI think the minor league (and Japanese league) translations are pretty well nailed down these days. See http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/minoreqa.php http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/minoreqa.php Of course, there is a huge amount of volatility, due to the changing true talent level (most guys in the minors are young, and should be getting better). In addition, there's the fact that MiLB seasons are shorter, and so SSS abound. But, in the community, these translations are seen as "pretty accurate".
- briancurtin 16y agoYep. Knowing HS stats are pretty much garbage, I wonder exactly what data, if any, they go off of with HS pitchers. There were always plenty of scouts around for his games, but they do the standard of watching two innings then leave.
- Travis 16y agoWhat I've read and heard from talking to a few scouts, teams don't look @ HS stats at all. With few exceptions (Bryce Harper is #1 ATM), they want projectability rather than performance.