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If I understand you correctly, battery-powered motors are much simpler than internal combustion engines, and battery costs are decreasing. Under this argument,

If I understand you correctly, battery-powered motors are much simpler than internal combustion engines, and battery costs are decreasing. Under this argument, VW's ability to build 30k+ car chassis + (complex combustion) engines + interiors, etc. each day is going to be challenged by what aspect of building these simpler electric cars? To date, EV sales are still a bit of chicken-and-egg, and Tesla does have a clear charger network advantage in parts of the world. But EV sales are a very small fraction of overall automotive sales, and until that changes, any doom and gloom on the traditional automakers is still exaggerated.

toomuchtodo 7y ago
Battery production. Battery manufacturers are extorting legacy automakers because they don't have their own capacity (LG Chem specifically). The bins you picked from before for ICE production are not the bins you pick from for EV production (for propulsion, at least). Tesla built GF1 in the Reno desert because, at the time (2013) [1], they forecast that at 500k/vehicles a year (which they're almost at), they would be consuming worldwide battery cell manufacturing capacity. And here we are with everyone else playing catch up trying to eek out the batteries they need to deliver EVs to compete against Tesla. [1] https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/gigafactory.pdf https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/g...
- Traster 7y ago
  I think one of the issues that should be worrying for Tesla, is that it's really Panasonic doing the heavy lifting on the battery side. I'm quite certain when it comes to it, Panasonic are going to be happy selling to Ford/GM/VW/BMW. It's true that Tesla is disrupting the automotive industry, but people don't really appreciate that the automotive industry involves thousands of suppliers of individual components that are then used to build a car by the manufacturers.
  - toomuchtodo 7y ago
    I'll worry about that when Ford/GM/VW/BMW makes an EV worth buying. Until then, the TSLA/Pano partnership seems to be working without issue. The special sauce is the cell chemistry and the battery management system, which Tesla owns.
    - notfromhere 7y ago
      Tesla/Pano have been having a lot of issues - a lot of it being on the Tesla side. Pano is no longer making those batteries just for cars because TSLA can't meet the volume needs
      - toomuchtodo 7y ago
        My understanding is that it's because Pano doesn't like Tesla's management style of the relationship (Pano prefers a loose feedback loop and team autonomy, Tesla wants it tight with rapid iteration and constant feedback up the chain), and that Tesla is about to scale up their own cell manufacturing. Feel free to throw citations in if you have solid evidence it's a demand issue, because Tesla sales figures and their last earnings call don't indicate that (their Model 3 backlog actually increased while deliveries also increased).
        reitzensteinm 7y ago
        Parent said nothing about demand.
        toomuchtodo 7y ago
        > Pano is no longer making those batteries just for cars because TSLA can't meet the volume needs Demand ^ Emphasis mine.
        reitzensteinm 7y ago
        No, a bottleneck in production other than batteries fits the bill just as well.

toomuchtodo 7y ago

Battery production. Battery manufacturers are extorting legacy automakers because they don't have their own capacity (LG Chem specifically). The bins you picked from before for ICE production are not the bins you pick from for EV production (for propulsion, at least). Tesla built GF1 in the Reno desert because, at the time (2013) [1], they forecast that at 500k/vehicles a year (which they're almost at), they would be consuming worldwide battery cell manufacturing capacity. And here we are with everyone else playing catch up trying to eek out the batteries they need to deliver EVs to compete against Tesla. [1] https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/gigafactory.pdf https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/g...

Traster 7y ago
I think one of the issues that should be worrying for Tesla, is that it's really Panasonic doing the heavy lifting on the battery side. I'm quite certain when it comes to it, Panasonic are going to be happy selling to Ford/GM/VW/BMW. It's true that Tesla is disrupting the automotive industry, but people don't really appreciate that the automotive industry involves thousands of suppliers of individual components that are then used to build a car by the manufacturers.
- toomuchtodo 7y ago
  I'll worry about that when Ford/GM/VW/BMW makes an EV worth buying. Until then, the TSLA/Pano partnership seems to be working without issue. The special sauce is the cell chemistry and the battery management system, which Tesla owns.
  - notfromhere 7y ago
    Tesla/Pano have been having a lot of issues - a lot of it being on the Tesla side. Pano is no longer making those batteries just for cars because TSLA can't meet the volume needs
    - toomuchtodo 7y ago
      My understanding is that it's because Pano doesn't like Tesla's management style of the relationship (Pano prefers a loose feedback loop and team autonomy, Tesla wants it tight with rapid iteration and constant feedback up the chain), and that Tesla is about to scale up their own cell manufacturing. Feel free to throw citations in if you have solid evidence it's a demand issue, because Tesla sales figures and their last earnings call don't indicate that (their Model 3 backlog actually increased while deliveries also increased).
      - reitzensteinm 7y ago
        Parent said nothing about demand.
        toomuchtodo 7y ago
        > Pano is no longer making those batteries just for cars because TSLA can't meet the volume needs Demand ^ Emphasis mine.
        reitzensteinm 7y ago
        No, a bottleneck in production other than batteries fits the bill just as well.