4 ms·

It's questionable whether Tesla survives long-term.

by notfromhere 7y ago

apearson 7y ago
Why do you think that?
juskrey 7y ago
Even if not, its assets will certainly do: can possibly lead to even cheaper/better EV cars.
quantdev 7y ago
Tesla has over $5Bn in cash and positive operating cash flow. You can argue about $TSLA the equity's valuation, but whether it survives long-term is no more questionable than whether VW survives.
- nostromo 7y ago
  $5b in cash... and $13b in debt.
  - quantdev 7y ago
    VW has $44b in cash and $160b in debt.
  - bryanlarsen 7y ago
    VW has 113 billion euros of debt.
toomuchtodo 7y ago
No different then if legacy automakers survive the next downturn. Ford debt is junk rated now (how many $50k-$70k pickups can you sell to marginal creditors?), GM is a retirement/pension system that happens to make cars (and lost $2 billion on the UAW strike), and Fiat Chrysler/Peugeot are merging to survive (Fiat owes Tesla ~$2 billion over the next 3 years for ZEVs to continue selling cars in Europe). Who has the most to lose at peak car? Certainly not Tesla. They'll shift to selling more utility battery storage, or Class 8 semis. In California, lots of solar/battery business to be had in PG&E territory alone for the next decade while PG&E and CA gov flounder about nationalizing that infra (which is a matter of when, not if). What will other light auto automakers make as demand falters? Cutbacks. Sure, Tesla has large amounts of debt. This is the best macro economic condition to have it in (low interest rates). They just need to keep ahead of the debt service curve (profit + cash flow). And if we're about to enter a contraction/recession, interest rates are not going to be going up (insert most recent fed rate cut here). Will it be easy to refinance that pile of TSLA bonds coming up for maturity? I say yes, but what actually happens is anyone's guess. They could do another equity raise and dilute existing shareholders with some grumbles but everyone would go along for the ride (me included). Smart folks argue Tesla is an energy company that happens to sell cars. Close. Tesla is a financial engineering act that converts mountains of capital and customer dollars into energy and auto products (Solar City was similarly a financial engineering act, PPAs for customers funded by bond markets before solar got so cheap PPAs no longer made sense). Usual disclaimer: TSLA investor, vehicle owner.
deleted 7y ago
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luckydata 7y ago
In the long run we’re all dead. So?

It's questionable whether Tesla survives long-term.

apearson 7y ago

Why do you think that?

juskrey 7y ago

Even if not, its assets will certainly do: can possibly lead to even cheaper/better EV cars.

quantdev 7y ago

Tesla has over $5Bn in cash and positive operating cash flow. You can argue about $TSLA the equity's valuation, but whether it survives long-term is no more questionable than whether VW survives.

nostromo 7y ago
$5b in cash... and $13b in debt.
- quantdev 7y ago
  VW has $44b in cash and $160b in debt.
- bryanlarsen 7y ago
  VW has 113 billion euros of debt.

toomuchtodo 7y ago

No different then if legacy automakers survive the next downturn. Ford debt is junk rated now (how many $50k-$70k pickups can you sell to marginal creditors?), GM is a retirement/pension system that happens to make cars (and lost $2 billion on the UAW strike), and Fiat Chrysler/Peugeot are merging to survive (Fiat owes Tesla ~$2 billion over the next 3 years for ZEVs to continue selling cars in Europe). Who has the most to lose at peak car? Certainly not Tesla. They'll shift to selling more utility battery storage, or Class 8 semis. In California, lots of solar/battery business to be had in PG&E territory alone for the next decade while PG&E and CA gov flounder about nationalizing that infra (which is a matter of when, not if). What will other light auto automakers make as demand falters? Cutbacks. Sure, Tesla has large amounts of debt. This is the best macro economic condition to have it in (low interest rates). They just need to keep ahead of the debt service curve (profit + cash flow). And if we're about to enter a contraction/recession, interest rates are not going to be going up (insert most recent fed rate cut here). Will it be easy to refinance that pile of TSLA bonds coming up for maturity? I say yes, but what actually happens is anyone's guess. They could do another equity raise and dilute existing shareholders with some grumbles but everyone would go along for the ride (me included). Smart folks argue Tesla is an energy company that happens to sell cars. Close. Tesla is a financial engineering act that converts mountains of capital and customer dollars into energy and auto products (Solar City was similarly a financial engineering act, PPAs for customers funded by bond markets before solar got so cheap PPAs no longer made sense). Usual disclaimer: TSLA investor, vehicle owner.

deleted 7y ago

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luckydata 7y ago

In the long run we’re all dead. So?