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> If you extrapolate their upward line forward Extrapolations are a bad idea for "tipping point" kinds of curves. Electric vehicles are steadily improving, and
by greglindahl 7y ago
> If you extrapolate their upward line forward
Extrapolations are a bad idea for "tipping point" kinds of curves. Electric vehicles are steadily improving, and as they become better in niches (like high performance cars) the curve can change to be nothing like the extrapolation.
- 0xffff2 7y agoLook at it a different way. How many years is the average car on the road? Even if we banned the sale of new ICE vehicles today, it would still take well over a decade for them to filter out of operation.
- WorldMaker 7y agoBut there are very real, very possible existential crises that could massively impact the ICE fleet and filter out existing vehicles faster the usual replacement rate. To obvious examples: the cost of gas rises fast enough, and/or entire gas chains go out of business making stations hard to find.