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So, interesting and all, but not even mentioning what is happening to coal the last few years seems like an odd omission. Coal is essentially disappearing from

So, interesting and all, but not even mentioning what is happening to coal the last few years seems like an odd omission. Coal is essentially disappearing from the world's energy mix. As big as coal was, it takes a while to go away completely, but the trend does not seem to be slowing down. By some estimates, there are a lot of cases now where it is more expensive to keep running an existing coal-fired power plant, than to replace it with solar or wind. So, at least a substantial fraction of this oil is replacing coal, which doesn't mean it's all ok for the climate change issue, but it seems like an important point to be just leaving out of the story entirely.

WhompingWindows 7y ago
Coal is down-trending in the USA, but it still makes up 30% of the electricity in the USA. In other countries, especially China and India, coal is expected to be burned in massive quantities for the next couple of decades. Granted, they use much more efficient coal than the US does, but let's not act like coal is disappearing overnight. It's been over 30% of the mix for decades and it will continue to be so, in a global scale, for at least a decade.
- privateSFacct 7y ago
  Look at South Africa - NO CHANCE of coal going away.
- catominor 7y ago
  Most/all of the coal plants that have been shut down in the USA in the past decade or so due to tightening regulations are sold (at an immense discount) and then shipped in pieces to China and started up again for the rest of their depreciable life (coal plants generally have a breakeven date 15 years after they start producing, and 30-40 years total before decommission). China also has far less stringent regulations on pollutants, so net loss for global pollutant emission prevention.
- rossdavidh 7y ago
  Well, what I'm reading is that coal is still increasing in China in absolute terms, but declining as a percentage of the mix. If oil drops in price in the way the article is suggesting, I would have to think that it would displace a good chunk of that? At the very least, if there's some reason we think it would not, the article should have explained why that is.
tasty_freeze 7y ago
Globally, coal has not dropped much in relative or absolute terms. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co2-by-source?stackMode=absolute https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co2-by-source?stackMode=a...
- rossdavidh 7y ago
  Good chart! It does seem to show that coal+oil is roughly flat the last couple years, though. This is exactly the sort of context that would have been interesting to see in the article. Thanks!
onepointsixC 7y ago
It's not crude oil but natural gas which has been replacing coal in the US. Natural Gas is much better, and given that there is no cost effective practical grid level storage solution, it is likely to stick around in any region which see's high levels of solar and wind power generation.
- AnthonyMouse 7y ago
  The thing is, coal has been used for baseload, which is horrible. Coal produces around twice as much carbon per unit heat as natural gas, and baseload generation runs 24/7. Use nuclear for baseload and solar for daytime demand and even without any storage technology, you limit the need for generation from fossil fuels to the high demand period in the evening after the sun goes down. Then add in demand-based pricing to load shift anything that can be (like charging electric vehicles) into the solar generation period. Going from burning coal 24/7 to a couple hours of burning natural gas in the evening is a huge reduction in carbon emissions. At that point it's a question of economics. Alternatives exist -- synthetic fuels produced in the daytime with energy from solar generation and then burned at night, biofuels, etc. They're not used because they're more expensive; impose a carbon tax and maybe they're not. And that's assuming no one comes up with anything creative. Here's an idea -- run a nuclear reactor 24/7 equipped with thermal storage. Then you can store the heat from the reactor during the day when you can get cheap electricity from solar, then use the stored heat to satisfy the few hours of peak demand in the evening after the sun goes down, then generate electricity directly from the reactor for the rest of the night until the sun comes up.
Tepix 7y ago
I'm afraid coal is not disappearing quickly either, I know someone who works in the mining industry and he tells me that they are still selling a growing amount of mining equipment for coal mines. These things have long lead times. If they sell the stuff now the coal mines will be in operations for decades.

WhompingWindows 7y ago

Coal is down-trending in the USA, but it still makes up 30% of the electricity in the USA. In other countries, especially China and India, coal is expected to be burned in massive quantities for the next couple of decades. Granted, they use much more efficient coal than the US does, but let's not act like coal is disappearing overnight. It's been over 30% of the mix for decades and it will continue to be so, in a global scale, for at least a decade.

privateSFacct 7y ago
Look at South Africa - NO CHANCE of coal going away.
catominor 7y ago
Most/all of the coal plants that have been shut down in the USA in the past decade or so due to tightening regulations are sold (at an immense discount) and then shipped in pieces to China and started up again for the rest of their depreciable life (coal plants generally have a breakeven date 15 years after they start producing, and 30-40 years total before decommission). China also has far less stringent regulations on pollutants, so net loss for global pollutant emission prevention.
rossdavidh 7y ago
Well, what I'm reading is that coal is still increasing in China in absolute terms, but declining as a percentage of the mix. If oil drops in price in the way the article is suggesting, I would have to think that it would displace a good chunk of that? At the very least, if there's some reason we think it would not, the article should have explained why that is.

tasty_freeze 7y ago

Globally, coal has not dropped much in relative or absolute terms. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co2-by-source?stackMode=absolute https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co2-by-source?stackMode=a...

rossdavidh 7y ago
Good chart! It does seem to show that coal+oil is roughly flat the last couple years, though. This is exactly the sort of context that would have been interesting to see in the article. Thanks!

onepointsixC 7y ago

It's not crude oil but natural gas which has been replacing coal in the US. Natural Gas is much better, and given that there is no cost effective practical grid level storage solution, it is likely to stick around in any region which see's high levels of solar and wind power generation.

AnthonyMouse 7y ago
The thing is, coal has been used for baseload, which is horrible. Coal produces around twice as much carbon per unit heat as natural gas, and baseload generation runs 24/7. Use nuclear for baseload and solar for daytime demand and even without any storage technology, you limit the need for generation from fossil fuels to the high demand period in the evening after the sun goes down. Then add in demand-based pricing to load shift anything that can be (like charging electric vehicles) into the solar generation period. Going from burning coal 24/7 to a couple hours of burning natural gas in the evening is a huge reduction in carbon emissions. At that point it's a question of economics. Alternatives exist -- synthetic fuels produced in the daytime with energy from solar generation and then burned at night, biofuels, etc. They're not used because they're more expensive; impose a carbon tax and maybe they're not. And that's assuming no one comes up with anything creative. Here's an idea -- run a nuclear reactor 24/7 equipped with thermal storage. Then you can store the heat from the reactor during the day when you can get cheap electricity from solar, then use the stored heat to satisfy the few hours of peak demand in the evening after the sun goes down, then generate electricity directly from the reactor for the rest of the night until the sun comes up.

Tepix 7y ago

I'm afraid coal is not disappearing quickly either, I know someone who works in the mining industry and he tells me that they are still selling a growing amount of mining equipment for coal mines. These things have long lead times. If they sell the stuff now the coal mines will be in operations for decades.