3 ms·

Nope, not if solar/batteries get cheaper: it won't be worth digging up

• acidburnNSA 7y ago
  As the generators have gotten cheaper, there's some indication that total energy costs have increased because of the cost of dealing with the intermittent nature of wind and solar. So for economics one must look well beyond levelized cost of electricity nowadays. If indeed energy storage costs dominate beyond 40% renewable penetration (total energy) then the exponential curve we see today at the 5% level will likely level off. In 2018 carbon emissions increased by 2% worldwide even though renewables grew by 15%.
  • adrianN 7y ago
    We are very far away from 40% renewables for primary energy consumption. Almost all countries are very far away even if you just look at electricity.
    • acidburnNSA 7y ago
      Exactly. We're closer to the 5% level today. I just see a lot of people seeing good renewable performance at a subsystems level and thinking it will continue unfettered up to the point that matters for climate change mitigation. Meanwhile we're actually building massive amounts of fracked natural gas generators, we're shutting down low-carbon nuclear plants, oil use in Asia is going gangbusters, NIMBYism around wind and solar and transmission is ramping up, and carbon emissions are rising at 2%/year. I feel like the "solar is now dirt cheap, and batteries!" thing is acting as a lullaby when we really need to continue to be alarmed about climate change and work hard to mitigate it. This problem isn't going to solve itself.
      • greglindahl 7y ago
        No one is saying we should stop being alarmed. Sheesh.
        • acidburnNSA 7y ago
          A lot of people in my circles are saying that the problem is already solved and carrying on with high-carbon lifestyles without worrying about it a all.