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Interesting that he was the man behind the Red Sox 2005 draft -- it would be fun to get a look at the stats and analysis he compiled for that. Michael Bowden ca

Interesting that he was the man behind the Red Sox 2005 draft -- it would be fun to get a look at the stats and analysis he compiled for that. Michael Bowden came right out of high school so I wonder how the difference in stat keeping and obtaining at the high school level affected what he had to come up with. (anecdote: We went to the same high school but didn't play together. He was on the freshman team when I was a senior on varsity. Stats were usually done by a volunteer student and only kept on paper.)

Travis 16y ago
Everything coming out of the SABR community (SABR=society of american baseball researchers) says that high school stats are 99.9% worthless. The reasons are many, but mainly it's the following: inconsistent contexts (fields, opponents, level of play) and small sample size. Most analysis suggests a full season (~700 plate appearances) isn't really enough for a hitter; h.s. seasons are generally around 100AB.
- michael_dorfman 16y ago
  On top of that, there is the difference in the pitching pool. I used to do a bit of sabremetrics, back in the day, and I tried to do some projections of AA and AAA players into the majors, and found it almost impossible to get any decent correlations.
  - Travis 16y ago
    I think the minor league (and Japanese league) translations are pretty well nailed down these days. See http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/minoreqa.php http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/minoreqa.php Of course, there is a huge amount of volatility, due to the changing true talent level (most guys in the minors are young, and should be getting better). In addition, there's the fact that MiLB seasons are shorter, and so SSS abound. But, in the community, these translations are seen as "pretty accurate".
- briancurtin 16y ago
  Yep. Knowing HS stats are pretty much garbage, I wonder exactly what data, if any, they go off of with HS pitchers. There were always plenty of scouts around for his games, but they do the standard of watching two innings then leave.
  - Travis 16y ago
    What I've read and heard from talking to a few scouts, teams don't look @ HS stats at all. With few exceptions (Bryce Harper is #1 ATM), they want projectability rather than performance.

Travis 16y ago

Everything coming out of the SABR community (SABR=society of american baseball researchers) says that high school stats are 99.9% worthless. The reasons are many, but mainly it's the following: inconsistent contexts (fields, opponents, level of play) and small sample size. Most analysis suggests a full season (~700 plate appearances) isn't really enough for a hitter; h.s. seasons are generally around 100AB.

michael_dorfman 16y ago
On top of that, there is the difference in the pitching pool. I used to do a bit of sabremetrics, back in the day, and I tried to do some projections of AA and AAA players into the majors, and found it almost impossible to get any decent correlations.
- Travis 16y ago
  I think the minor league (and Japanese league) translations are pretty well nailed down these days. See http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/minoreqa.php http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/minoreqa.php Of course, there is a huge amount of volatility, due to the changing true talent level (most guys in the minors are young, and should be getting better). In addition, there's the fact that MiLB seasons are shorter, and so SSS abound. But, in the community, these translations are seen as "pretty accurate".
briancurtin 16y ago
Yep. Knowing HS stats are pretty much garbage, I wonder exactly what data, if any, they go off of with HS pitchers. There were always plenty of scouts around for his games, but they do the standard of watching two innings then leave.
- Travis 16y ago
  What I've read and heard from talking to a few scouts, teams don't look @ HS stats at all. With few exceptions (Bryce Harper is #1 ATM), they want projectability rather than performance.