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Productivity gains can increase faster than demographics change. Keynes predicted that we could move to a fifteen-hour working week and keep living at 1930s sta
by dmurray 7y ago
Productivity gains can increase faster than demographics change. Keynes predicted that we could move to a fifteen-hour working week and keep living at 1930s standards. He was right, but collectively we decided to work about the same and consume more instead. In the next fifty years, perhaps our standard of living won't increase as much, but it won't crash purely because of demographic changes.
And focusing more on preventative healthcare doesn't address the problem, either. As the author points out, 50% of healthcare spending is spent on people with less than 30 days to live. If you "prevent liver failure" or whatever, people live a year longer and die of heart failure instead. There isn't a realistic direction for medical research that prevents all diseases requiring care, and leaves everyone 100% healthy until one day they are dead.
- Dumblydorr 7y agoI think we can still do a lot, as some diseases of the elderly are chronic and kill them very slowly and expensively, ie neurodegenerative disorders. Others like heart failure or an infection might kill a very old person somewhat more quickly. So, if we prevent the long, drag out, very service intensive illnesses, it may lighten the load.
- jraby3 7y agoI think we’re starting to see changes in allowing people the right to die on their own terms. This may be a consequence of the decline of religion. In any case, this may have a significant effect on the last months of healthcare costs. However I still agree with the premise of the article, but it may slow the inevitable.