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Baby steps. Once the majority of human drivers get off the road we will almost certainly see an evolution in traffic control systems which will allow self drivi

Baby steps. Once the majority of human drivers get off the road we will almost certainly see an evolution in traffic control systems which will allow self driving vehicles to conquer poor weather conditions. As of now, each vehicle can only rely on its own sensor package to understand the world. Tesla already has a system in place that lets one car learn from thousands of others; ie if everyone disconnects autopilot at a certain turn each car will learn to slow down even if they have never encountered that turn before. The future will have more of this. Self driving has mostly been a solved problem, it just only works in ports, warehouses, docks, and factory floors. You might say those are tightly regulated spaces, but so are roads! All it takes is political will to scale up the same systems that guide robots today and install them onto every highway and main road.

KineticLensman 7y ago
> All it takes is political will to scale up the same systems that guide robots today and install them onto every highway and main road Well, that and a massive amount of infrastructure spend.
- mopsi 7y ago
  Many places in the world already have reflectors installed into all major and many minor roads. Seems like a reliable and very cheap way of detecting lane geometry. https://www.worldhighways.com/_resources/assets/inline/custom/73/40218.jpg https://www.worldhighways.com/_resources/assets/inline/custo... Snow isn't a problem either, because reflectors can be (and often are) mounted onto plastic poles. https://c7.alamy.com/comp/EC79CD/reflector-signal-white-post-roadside-in-lonely-road-of-spain-europe-EC79CD.jpg https://c7.alamy.com/comp/EC79CD/reflector-signal-white-post...
- steelframe 7y ago
  >> All it takes is political will to scale up the same systems that guide robots today and install them onto every highway and main road > Well, that and a massive amount of infrastructure spend. And before we put anything close to that kind of money toward autonomous cars, I demand the spending go toward urban micromobility infrastructure first.
rayiner 7y ago
> Baby steps. Once the majority of human drivers get off the road we will almost certainly see an evolution in traffic control systems which will allow self driving vehicles to conquer poor weather conditions That puts the cart before the horse. The cars need to be able to handle weather before “the majority of human drivers get off the road.” In most of the US, not being able to drive in bad weather will make self driving cars a complete non-starter.
- ambicapter 7y ago
  > In most of the US, not being able to drive in bad weather will make self driving cars a complete non-starter. This strikes me as complete hyperbole. "Most of the US" population wise is in cities, which have weather management (snow plows, bright lights), and plenty of people will buy a car that "self-drives" 80% of the time-most people's driving miles are boring highway commutes, not off-roading.
  - rayiner 7y ago
    Most of the US population lives in the suburbs, not cities: http://www.newgeography.com/files/cox-uza-3.png http://www.newgeography.com/files/cox-uza-3.png. It can take days for local suburban roads to be cleared after a snow storm. Rain is also a significant impediment to self driving. “Most people” (the criterion specified by OP, above) will not buy a car they cannot drive during a snow storm or rain storm. Peoples’ driving might mostly be boring highway miles, but for example here in the southeast you still need to get to work during the regular summer downpours where you can’t see the lines on the road.
    - MAGZine 7y ago
      I have every confidence that once self-driving cars have done a pretty good job of mastering city/fair-weather driving conditions, that ML will be able to handle poor weather just as good or better than humans. For example, humans are susceptible to panic when they start to lose control of the vehicle and do unproductive things like lock up the brakes. Even experienced drivers do this. Self-driving autos won't. But yes, in the short term, self-driving is a non-starter for many regions during winter months or inclement weather.
rm_-rf_slash 7y ago
Splitting hairs a bit: the qualifications and regulations for driving in ports, warehouses, docks, and factory floors are far more stringent than public roadways, and the conditions on roads are far less predictable and controllable. Wouldn’t want to end up like Klaus: https://youtu.be/-oB6DN5dYWo https://youtu.be/-oB6DN5dYWo
steelframe 7y ago
> if everyone disconnects autopilot at a certain turn each car will learn to slow down even if they have never encountered that turn before. That can't be the bar. Full self-driving technology must be able to handle any situation as well as the bottom ~1% of human drivers the first time any vehicle on the road encounters it.
fouc 7y ago
> Once the majority of human drivers get off the road This leads to a dystopian future. When the majority have given away their driving freedoms to machines controlled by corporations, the outcomes are not good.

KineticLensman 7y ago

> All it takes is political will to scale up the same systems that guide robots today and install them onto every highway and main road Well, that and a massive amount of infrastructure spend.

mopsi 7y ago
Many places in the world already have reflectors installed into all major and many minor roads. Seems like a reliable and very cheap way of detecting lane geometry. https://www.worldhighways.com/_resources/assets/inline/custom/73/40218.jpg https://www.worldhighways.com/_resources/assets/inline/custo... Snow isn't a problem either, because reflectors can be (and often are) mounted onto plastic poles. https://c7.alamy.com/comp/EC79CD/reflector-signal-white-post-roadside-in-lonely-road-of-spain-europe-EC79CD.jpg https://c7.alamy.com/comp/EC79CD/reflector-signal-white-post...
steelframe 7y ago
>> All it takes is political will to scale up the same systems that guide robots today and install them onto every highway and main road > Well, that and a massive amount of infrastructure spend. And before we put anything close to that kind of money toward autonomous cars, I demand the spending go toward urban micromobility infrastructure first.

rayiner 7y ago

> Baby steps. Once the majority of human drivers get off the road we will almost certainly see an evolution in traffic control systems which will allow self driving vehicles to conquer poor weather conditions That puts the cart before the horse. The cars need to be able to handle weather before “the majority of human drivers get off the road.” In most of the US, not being able to drive in bad weather will make self driving cars a complete non-starter.

ambicapter 7y ago
> In most of the US, not being able to drive in bad weather will make self driving cars a complete non-starter. This strikes me as complete hyperbole. "Most of the US" population wise is in cities, which have weather management (snow plows, bright lights), and plenty of people will buy a car that "self-drives" 80% of the time-most people's driving miles are boring highway commutes, not off-roading.
- rayiner 7y ago
  Most of the US population lives in the suburbs, not cities: http://www.newgeography.com/files/cox-uza-3.png http://www.newgeography.com/files/cox-uza-3.png. It can take days for local suburban roads to be cleared after a snow storm. Rain is also a significant impediment to self driving. “Most people” (the criterion specified by OP, above) will not buy a car they cannot drive during a snow storm or rain storm. Peoples’ driving might mostly be boring highway miles, but for example here in the southeast you still need to get to work during the regular summer downpours where you can’t see the lines on the road.
  - MAGZine 7y ago
    I have every confidence that once self-driving cars have done a pretty good job of mastering city/fair-weather driving conditions, that ML will be able to handle poor weather just as good or better than humans. For example, humans are susceptible to panic when they start to lose control of the vehicle and do unproductive things like lock up the brakes. Even experienced drivers do this. Self-driving autos won't. But yes, in the short term, self-driving is a non-starter for many regions during winter months or inclement weather.

rm_-rf_slash 7y ago

Splitting hairs a bit: the qualifications and regulations for driving in ports, warehouses, docks, and factory floors are far more stringent than public roadways, and the conditions on roads are far less predictable and controllable. Wouldn’t want to end up like Klaus: https://youtu.be/-oB6DN5dYWo https://youtu.be/-oB6DN5dYWo

steelframe 7y ago

> if everyone disconnects autopilot at a certain turn each car will learn to slow down even if they have never encountered that turn before. That can't be the bar. Full self-driving technology must be able to handle any situation as well as the bottom ~1% of human drivers the first time any vehicle on the road encounters it.

fouc 7y ago

> Once the majority of human drivers get off the road This leads to a dystopian future. When the majority have given away their driving freedoms to machines controlled by corporations, the outcomes are not good.