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>Indeed, the marginal cost per flight could fall to $5m or below, reducing launch costs to the neighborhood of $35/kg, or 1000x less than Shuttle. The keyword

>Indeed, the marginal cost per flight could fall to $5m or below, reducing launch costs to the neighborhood of $35/kg, or 1000x less than Shuttle. The keyword here is "marginal". You can achieve the $35/kg if you only account for the fuel. In other words, the entire rocket must be retrieved intact and launched again with no maintenance whatsoever. In reality, this will never happen and most likely the cost will be a few hundred dollars per kilogram. For Falcon 9, this number is still above $2000/kg, but even that is way better than other existing launch systems.

avmich 7y ago
> In reality, this will never happen and most likely the cost will be a few hundred dollars per kilogram. SpaceX has a history of proving skeptics wrong :) . You didn't elaborate why your opinion is better than those skeptics'.
- namirez 7y ago
  Well, it's not about my opinion. The cost of launching 1kg to LEO on Falcon 9 is $2700 which is a far cry from $35. Please note that $2700/kg is still great since older launch systems cost about $5k-$10k/kg. We are still talking about a factor of 2-4, not 100.
  - avmich 7y ago
    > Well, it's not about my opinion. It is. You're making statement about the future - what SpaceX will achieve or demonstrate - as if it's a fact. There are plenty of people who disagree with this statement, who have another opinion about the future and who will point out that SpaceX did several times something what was considered at least unlikely. > Please note that $2700/kg is still great When Proton launcher debuted on world market in 1990-s, the price (not cost) for a launch was about 30 millions, which, given payload about 20 tons to LEO, gives price per kg of about 1500 dollars. $2700/kg isn't bad, but isn't record-shattering either. As for costs - as opposed to price - of Falcon-9, we may have only estimation. Two orders of magnitude difference won't likely be achieved immediately, but the potential is here. See the evolution of airlines.

avmich 7y ago

> In reality, this will never happen and most likely the cost will be a few hundred dollars per kilogram. SpaceX has a history of proving skeptics wrong :) . You didn't elaborate why your opinion is better than those skeptics'.

namirez 7y ago
Well, it's not about my opinion. The cost of launching 1kg to LEO on Falcon 9 is $2700 which is a far cry from $35. Please note that $2700/kg is still great since older launch systems cost about $5k-$10k/kg. We are still talking about a factor of 2-4, not 100.
- avmich 7y ago
  > Well, it's not about my opinion. It is. You're making statement about the future - what SpaceX will achieve or demonstrate - as if it's a fact. There are plenty of people who disagree with this statement, who have another opinion about the future and who will point out that SpaceX did several times something what was considered at least unlikely. > Please note that $2700/kg is still great When Proton launcher debuted on world market in 1990-s, the price (not cost) for a launch was about 30 millions, which, given payload about 20 tons to LEO, gives price per kg of about 1500 dollars. $2700/kg isn't bad, but isn't record-shattering either. As for costs - as opposed to price - of Falcon-9, we may have only estimation. Two orders of magnitude difference won't likely be achieved immediately, but the potential is here. See the evolution of airlines.