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The jail that Epstein died in has had one other suicide in the past 40 years. They haven't actually lost someone to suicide 21 years, despite several attempts.

The jail that Epstein died in has had one other suicide in the past 40 years. They haven't actually lost someone to suicide 21 years, despite several attempts. They're not incompetent at all at preventing their inmates from committing suicide. So no, the statement that suicide is made practically impossible there isn't based on wrong assumptions, it's very well supported by statistics. Source: https://www.foxnews.com/us/epstein-new-york-lockup-suicides https://www.foxnews.com/us/epstein-new-york-lockup-suicides

Matticus_Rex 7y ago
Ehhh, sample size and base rate issues make me question "very well supported by statistics," but it's certainly an argument to the contrary.
- robocat 7y ago
  "sample size and base rate issues" are only an argument to the contrary if you know the values - otherwise you are just muddying the issue.
  - Matticus_Rex 7y ago
    I didn't say that was the argument to the contrary.
topkai22 7y ago
"1 suicide and 3 attempted suicides"- that's actually both an insanely low attempt rate and an insanely high completion rate/attempt.
- romwell 7y ago
  That means that most people didn't even figure out how to attempt one, because the means were taken away. You should compare with suicides/suicide attempt rates in general population (or general prison population) to make this statement.
  - topkai22 7y ago
    https://www.cnn.com/2017/04/19/health/prison-suicides-massachusetts-trnd/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2017/04/19/health/prison-suicides-massac... General prison suicide rate is 20/100,000, which is almost identical to the male general population rate in the US (21.1) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_r...) I didn't quickly get data on attempt/completion in prison, but the attempt/completion rate is the general pop is ~30 attempts/completion, and the completion rate is dramatically driven up with access to firearms. (https://afsp.org/about-suicide/suicide-statistics/ https://afsp.org/about-suicide/suicide-statistics/) I'd expect to see a lower completion/attempt rate in prison, not a higher one, given the monitoring and reduced access to methods. I stand by my statement- something is funny with the way they reported that data.
    - jnaddef 7y ago
      Again you are comparing apples with oranges. Outside of prison, nothing prevents you from attempting suicide. Whether you succeed or not depends mostly on your resolve and how you do it. In a perfect prison, suicide attempt should be 0%, not because people are happy, but because inmates should have no way to even attempt a suicide. If at some point a mistake is made and an inmate manages to kill himself, it will be a 1 attempt/completion and going to the conclusion that prisons make it easy to kill yourself does not seem right.
      - jacobush 7y ago
        No that is not a perfect prison. A perfect prison should probably be more like the general population. Unless you think the perfect prison is chained to the wall at all times. And that prison is no place for rehabilitation.
        jnaddef 7y ago
        Sure, I thought it was obvious I meant : "in a perfect high-security cell where the goal is to keep the prisoner from killing himself before testifying"
TheOperator 7y ago
Just because something is a conspiracy doesn't mean it isn't the most plausible scenario. The theories that a man who as many powerful people wanted dead as Epstein not only beat the odds when it came too attempting suicide but also succeeding is just not plausible. It's just unlikely. It's possible but not probable. There's such a thing as an irrational bias that something CAN'T be a conspiracy if other scenerios are possible. Many people take pride in "debunking" conspiracies and that ego can make it hard to see a real one right in front of you.

Matticus_Rex 7y ago

Ehhh, sample size and base rate issues make me question "very well supported by statistics," but it's certainly an argument to the contrary.

robocat 7y ago
"sample size and base rate issues" are only an argument to the contrary if you know the values - otherwise you are just muddying the issue.
- Matticus_Rex 7y ago
  I didn't say that was the argument to the contrary.

topkai22 7y ago

"1 suicide and 3 attempted suicides"- that's actually both an insanely low attempt rate and an insanely high completion rate/attempt.

romwell 7y ago
That means that most people didn't even figure out how to attempt one, because the means were taken away. You should compare with suicides/suicide attempt rates in general population (or general prison population) to make this statement.
- topkai22 7y ago
  https://www.cnn.com/2017/04/19/health/prison-suicides-massachusetts-trnd/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2017/04/19/health/prison-suicides-massac... General prison suicide rate is 20/100,000, which is almost identical to the male general population rate in the US (21.1) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_r...) I didn't quickly get data on attempt/completion in prison, but the attempt/completion rate is the general pop is ~30 attempts/completion, and the completion rate is dramatically driven up with access to firearms. (https://afsp.org/about-suicide/suicide-statistics/ https://afsp.org/about-suicide/suicide-statistics/) I'd expect to see a lower completion/attempt rate in prison, not a higher one, given the monitoring and reduced access to methods. I stand by my statement- something is funny with the way they reported that data.
  - jnaddef 7y ago
    Again you are comparing apples with oranges. Outside of prison, nothing prevents you from attempting suicide. Whether you succeed or not depends mostly on your resolve and how you do it. In a perfect prison, suicide attempt should be 0%, not because people are happy, but because inmates should have no way to even attempt a suicide. If at some point a mistake is made and an inmate manages to kill himself, it will be a 1 attempt/completion and going to the conclusion that prisons make it easy to kill yourself does not seem right.
    - jacobush 7y ago
      No that is not a perfect prison. A perfect prison should probably be more like the general population. Unless you think the perfect prison is chained to the wall at all times. And that prison is no place for rehabilitation.
      - jnaddef 7y ago
        Sure, I thought it was obvious I meant : "in a perfect high-security cell where the goal is to keep the prisoner from killing himself before testifying"

TheOperator 7y ago

Just because something is a conspiracy doesn't mean it isn't the most plausible scenario. The theories that a man who as many powerful people wanted dead as Epstein not only beat the odds when it came too attempting suicide but also succeeding is just not plausible. It's just unlikely. It's possible but not probable. There's such a thing as an irrational bias that something CAN'T be a conspiracy if other scenerios are possible. Many people take pride in "debunking" conspiracies and that ego can make it hard to see a real one right in front of you.