It's true that we do know more, but that's reflected in the even more ambitious promises being made. SpaceX will almost certainly improve greatly on the Shuttle

It's true that we do know more, but that's reflected in the even more ambitious promises being made. SpaceX will almost certainly improve greatly on the Shuttle, but will also just as certainly fail to live up to the projections being made for it now, before the first flight. And my guess is that it will fall short by quite a bit, these are pretty big claims being made. I think the Starship will become obsolete, for instance, before it ever gets to a flight rate of once per day.